Shahbazyan vs. Petroski odds, picks and predictions

In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Edmen Shahbazyan and Andre Petroski meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 69 at State Farm Arena in Atlanta. The main event is expected to start approximately at 11 p.m. ET, following the prelims scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN+) and the main card set for 10 p.m. ET (ESPN / ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC on ESPN 69: Shahbazyan vs. Petroski odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.

Records: Shahbazyan (14-5-0) | Petroski (13-4-0)

Shahbazyan is looking to build some momentum after a Round-1 KO/TKO victory against Dylan Budka last time out in mid-February. Across his past 8 fights, Shahbazyan is just 3-5 since August 2020. Plus, he hasn’t had consecutive wins since going 3-0 to open his UFC career from March to November 2019.

In Shahbazyan’s UFC career, he gone the distance just once in 11 fights, a unanimous-decision loss to Jack Hermansson in May 2021. He is 5-3 via KO/TKO, and 1-1 via submission.

Petroski heads into this fight with 3 consecutive victories, each by unanimous decision, including against Rodolfo Vieira in a Fight Night battle in mid-February. His last fight to finish inside the distance was a Round-2 KO/TKO loss to Jacob Malkoun. His past 5 victories have been via decision with 4 unanimous decisions and 1 by way of split decision.

Shahbazyan has a 2-inch advantage and holds a 3.78-to-2.89 significant-strikes-per-minute advantage. But Petroski is slightly more accurate on those strikes, recording a 57.09% mark to Shahbazyan’s 52.08%.

Petroski has a solid 3.38 takedown average, which he uses to wow the judges and tip the scales in his favor, while Shahbazyan has a 1.97 mark in the category, which is still quite good. Petroski has a 54.35% takedown-accuracy percentage; Shahbazyan has a mark of 38.71% in the category. Submission-average advantage goes to Petroski, too, at 1.49, while Shahbazyan is at 0.49 for his career.

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UFC on ESPN 69: Shahbazyan vs. Petroski odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:02 a.m. ET.

• Fight result (2-way line): Shahbazyan -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Petroski +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
• Total rounds: 1.5 rounds (Over -155 | Under +120)
• Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +175 | No -250)

UFC on ESPN 69: Shahbazyan vs. Petroski picks and predictions

PETROSKI (+130) is a solid value as a moderate underdog on the 2-way line.

Petroski holds all of the advantages, in terms of statistical categories, although the fact Shahbazyan has a 2-inch reach advantage is a bit of a concern.

Still, Petroski is pinpoint with his significant strikes, and he is very good in takedown average, as well as submission average. This fight is likely ticketed for the distance, and as such, PETROSKI BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+350) for the chance to multiply up by 3 times if especially attractive.

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OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-155) is a little on the costly side, but it’s hard to envision a scenario where we get an early finish.

Petroski has ended up going the distance in 3 straight fights, and 5 of his past 7 bouts. As long as he can avoid the big shot, as he has had a propensity to let down his guard and eat big punches, this one should make it past the midway point of Round 2.

YES (+175): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a surprisingly great value at plus-money. It’s mostly because Shahbazyan has managed to go the distance just once in 11 fights at the UFC level. But, Petroski will do enough to hang around and wow the judges.

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