FIFA Club World Cup predictions: Who are tournament favorites?

The revamped FIFA Club World Cup is here, beginning this North American Summer of Soccer. And unlike the ghosts of Club World Cups past, it’s a big thing now: sleepy December one-offs between a UEFA juggernaut and some poor AFC side two days off a red-eye are gone in favor of real tournament – 32 teams, a solid month of the calendar blocked off, with group stages and knockouts culminating with an actual chance to write yourself into the history books. Think of it as the World Cup for clubs (the tournament is doing what it says on the tin).

This is, in other words, a trophy worth caring about and fighting for. And, in the case of some of the biggest teams actually competing, a trophy worth spending tens of millions of dollars trying to win.

Three MLS clubs are on the guest list. Seattle Sounders FC were invited as the first MLS team to win the modern-era Concacaf Champions Cup in 2022. Inter Miami CF’s invite came courtesy of winning the 2024 Supporters’ Shield (as a Shield truther for nearly 30 years, that was a big moment for me). And LAFC dramatically punched their ticket two weeks back when Denis Bouanga’s extra-time winner pushed them past Club América.

(Why did it come down to LAFC and Club América for the last spot? Well, how about we don’t get bogged down in minutiae and just enjoy the show!)

MLS, in short, are invited to the global party in a way the league hasn’t really been before, bringing stars, narratives and maybe even expectations (caveat emptor). The Sounders got a taste of this two years back with a brief appearance in the previous iteration of the CWC. Now they’re back, and Bouanga’s LAFC side is here, too, and then there’s Miami, with Leo Messi and friends.

For them, and the league as a whole, this is a measuring stick. And for any long-time MLS fan, or for any potential new fan checking this thing out, that’s all part of the draw. We’ll get answers to some questions – about depth, scheduling and whether anyone’s center backs can hold up in late June heat – but the door is open.

MLS clubs are hopefully about to step through.

It won’t be the Sounders. Sorry to the Rave Green gang, who are beset by injury, but even if they were healthy, few would be picking them to get out of the Group of Death (Group B):

• PSG are the newly crowned European champions and are probably the favorites to win the whole thing.
• Atlético Madrid are always one of the best teams in the world, and aren’t the type to lower their guard in games they should win.
• Botafogo are struggling, relatively speaking, compared to the other Brazilian participants (sixth in the Série A table after 11 rounds, and just barely above water in xGD). But they spent $100 million on new players last year, and another $20 million last week.

As Commissioner Don Garber said to gathered press in LA this week, clearly MLS teams are at the lower quadrant of Transfermarkt value. Transfermarkt values are a blunt, but useful instrument in assessing overall squad quality, and we’re talking “Leicester win the Premier League” just for the Sounders to get out of the group.

What awaits Seattle Sounders in Group B?

Miami have an easier task in Group A:

• Porto are an excellent team and one every MLS side should emulate, with both their commitment to developing their own talent and the deftness with which they identify, purchase, develop and sell South American talent to the PSGs and Atletis of the world. They’ll be heavy favorites in this group, but don’t feel insurmountable in the way PSG and Atleti do.
• Palmeiras have been the most successful team in Brazil – by a nose over Flamengo – over the past decade. They’re integrating a ton of new faces (they sell more than Botafogo), including old friends Facundo Torres from Orlando and Micael from Houston.
• That leaves Al Ahly, the Egyptian and African champs, and the same side that ousted Seattle back in 2022’s CWC. They’ll be good and organized, and they’ve been here before. But Miami will be favored in the opener.

I still don’t like the Herons’ chances, though, because I don’t like the Herons’ ability (lack thereof) to keep the game compact through midfield.

That might not matter against Al Ahly, a team I thought Seattle outplayed two years ago (they just couldn’t finish, which is not unusual for MLS teams in February). But I’d be shocked if it wasn’t determinative against Palmeiras and Porto.

What awaits Inter Miami in Group A?

On paper, two of LAFC’s Group D matchups are tougher:

• Chelsea just finished fourth in the Premier League, spend an impossi-billion dollars every transfer window (including $40 million on a new No. 9 this week), and while they won’t be using the tournament to debut right winger Estêvão – he’s probably the second-most exciting teenager in the world, and is still with Paleiras for another month – we will finally get to see Andrey Santos running the show in central midfield after an outstanding season with Strasbourg.
• Flamengo haven’t spent to the same level as Botafogo and Palmeiras lately, but they’re a better team right now. They sit atop Série A and their xGD of +1.09/90 indicates a level of dominance you rarely see in that league. They’re doing it with the ball, up over 60% possession with much of it funneling through legendary Uruguayan playmaker Giorgian De Arrascaeta.
• The fourth team in the group is African side Espérance de Tunis, who I know nothing about other than LAFC will be favored.

So why do I think the Black & Gold will have a better chance of getting out of the group? It comes down to their comfort playing against the ball and the likelihood they’ll spend 180 minutes doing just that against Chelsea and Flamengo.

I’ve knocked them for their absorb-and-counter tactics in big games in the past, but they are good at it, and in Bouanga, they have an open-field goalscorer who gets moments against anybody in the world.

They also just went out and added Dutch winger Javairô Dilrosun from Club América, taking advantage of the pre-CWC window. Dilrosun’s got real playmaking chops from the wing, especially in transition, which… yeah you can do the math.

I do see a way. There is a narrow way through.

What awaits LAFC in Group D?

The most authentic PSG fan I know called their 5-0 win over Inter Milan more than just a win; it was therapy. They finally got that Champions League monkey off their backs and are now part of the club whose door they’ve been trying to batter down for a dozen years.

They were either the best or second-best team in the world (I still think a healthy Barcelona takes ’em) all year long, and there’s no reason to think they’ll look like anything other than that in this tournament. There is no pressure now, just freedom to press teams into submission, and to start adding the types of trophies that codify them as one of the world’s great clubs.

Vitinha is my favorite central midfielder in the world (non-Pedri edition), pulling strings and flitting from pocket to pocket, often before you realize one’s about to open up. Ousmane Dembélé pressing is terrifying, and… look, I could just name all their guys. All their guys are great.

The same is true for Chelsea, Atleti, Bayern Munich and Inter Milan. Any of those could win this thing and it wouldn’t be a shock.

But the two other teams that will occasion the most comment this tournament are the remade Manchester City and Real Madrid sides. City spent $80 million last week, about half of which went to Frenchman Rayan Cherki, who is maybe the most exciting true No. 10 in the world right now. He’s probably even ahead of Estêvão in terms of “player casuals haven’t heard of who could steal the whole show” ratings.

Real Madrid’s rebuild is going a little slower – their spectacular young No. 10, Franco Mastantuono, will actually be playing for River Plate in this tournament before officially making the move – but the defense has been reinforced (they spent £10 million to get Trent Alexander-Arnold from Liverpool a month early), and boy did that need to happen.

Maybe more important is Madrid are taking this whole thing very, very seriously (hence the £10 million for a player they were getting for free as soon as the calendar turned). And they have a long history of winning tournaments they take seriously (including the 2022 iteration of this one, a record five times).

There have been zero non-UEFA winners since Corinthians pulled off the upset over Rafael Benítez-era Chelsea (derogatory) in 2012. That’s the only non-UEFA winner of the past 17 years, though Flamengo (2019) and Palmeiras (2021) did, at least, take the final to extra time in recent memory.

Of course, that was a smaller tournament with fewer UEFA teams and lower stakes (read: less prize money).

Even for teams as great as the current versions of Flamengo, Palmeiras and River Plate, just getting to the semifinals would be a massive accomplishment that would likely require at least one massive upset.

Suffice it to say, I will be rooting for any non-UEFA team that makes it that far.

Saudi Arabian side Al-Hilal – the most decorated team in Asian soccer history – actually got to the final in 2022, by the way. They have a double-handful of great players from around the world and many of the best Saudi players as well, and probably have the best shot of the non-Conmebol teams of crashing what looks destined to be a UEFA-only semifinal party.

That said, Pachuca made it to the final of the Intercontinental Cup last year (which is the annual tournament that replaced the old version of the CWC) before getting taken to the woodshed by Real Madrid.

So it can happen. The ball, as they say, is round.

I think there are three real choices: Seattle midfielder Obed Vargas, LAFC forward Nathan Ordaz or Miami attacker Telasco Segovia.

Of the three, I think Ordaz probably has the lowest ceiling. But given how mobile he is, how likely LAFC are to play on the break and how smart a complementary piece he’s become in that attack, the stars feel aligned to give him the best chance of the three to shine.

I love Segovia, though. Truly:

And yeah, a guy who does it against Brazil in a World Cup qualifier isn’t going to be intimidated by the stage this summer.

Tournament Champions: Real Madrid

I hate myself for this because there’s really not a great reason to take them over Bayern, or City, or especially PSG. Their squad is still incomplete; their chemistry this past year was not great (which resulted in a pretty spectacular – and unusual, for them – Champions League exit); and they’re going to be learning a new system under new head coach Xabi Alonso.

But it’s Real Madrid. They find a way.

Player of the Tournament: Kylian Mbappé

The 26-year-old Frenchman was supposed to be the one to lead PSG to the mountaintop, but they never got there. Instead, he left after last season – he moved to Real on a free, with a VERY healthy signing bonus – and subsequently watched his old team ascend to the highest echelon of the world’s game without him. And yes, there was plenty of discourse about the way Mbappé plays center forward (he is maybe not the most invested defensive presence) and how Dembele played the role (he is a maniacal defender), and how maybe that’s what PSG actually needed.

On top of that, Madrid struggled with that early Champions League ouster, four losses to their eternal rivals in Barcelona, and the end to what was an otherwise glorious era under Carlo Ancelotti.

Mbappé took a lot of criticism from both the press and the team’s fans (sometimes hard to distinguish those from each other in Spain) throughout. He did, however, score 43 goals across all competitions, including one in that Intercontinental Cup triumph over Pachuca, and another in their UEFA Super Cup win over Atalanta.

There aren’t many clubs in the world where two trophies and a Golden Boot would mean your season’s a failure, but that’s what Mbappé signed up for when he donned the white. If he leads his side to glory this summer, and helps inaugurate both this version of the CWC and Alonso’s tenure with Madrid triumphant, that would go a long way toward changing the narrative – and silencing the critics – ahead of Year 2.