Cubs at Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The Chicago Cubs (40-25) and the Philadelphia Phillies (37-28) open a 3-game set Monday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Cubs vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-1

The Cubs lost 2 of 3 games at the Detroit Tigers, wrapping up the set with a 4-0 defeat as +109 underdogs Sunday with the Under (8.5) hitting. SP Cade Horton (loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K) took his first loss of the season in 6 starts as the Cubs dropped their third game in the last 5.

The Phillies have lost 5 straight and were swept in 3 games at the Pittsburgh Pirates. They lost 2-1 as +111 underdogs in the Sunday finale with the Under (6.5) cashing. Philadelphia has been held to 1 run in 4 of its last 5 games, including each of the past 2.

Cubs at Phillies projected starters

LHP Matthew Boyd vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Boyd (5-3, 3.01 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 through 68 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 7 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 2-0 defeat at Washington Nationals Wednesday
• 2025 road stats: 0-3, 3.49 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 7 starts
• Career vs. Phillies: 1 home start (July 23, 2019), no-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-2 setback in 15 innings

Wheeler (6-2, 2.96 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 0.92 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 76 innings.

• Coming off paternity list to start Monday
• Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 9-3 home defeat vs. Atlanta Braves May 29
• 2025 home stats: 3-1, 3.09 ERA (32 IP, 11 ER), 0.81 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 5 starts
• Career vs. Cubs: 2-2, 3.59 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 9.1 K/9 in 9 starts, including 0-0 with 3.00 ERA in 1 start in 2024

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Cubs at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Cubs +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Phillies -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Cubs +1.5 (-200) | Phillies -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -118 | U: -102)

Cubs at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 3, Cubs 2

PHILADELPHIA (-130) is 5-1 in Wheeler’s last 6 starts. Before his rough outing against Atlanta — where he allowed 6 runs in 5 1/3 innings — Wheeler had surrendered just 4 runs combined over his previous 5 starts.

Don’t overreact to the Phillies getting swept in Pittsburgh. BET PHILLIES (-130).

Philadelphia -1.5 (+165) is too risky, as the Phillies have won by multiple runs just once in their last 11 games. On the other side, Chicago +1.5 (-200) is too expensive.

PASS on the run line.

Both offenses have struggled of late. Philadelphia has managed just 8 runs over its last 5 games, while Chicago has been held to 1 run or fewer in 3 of its last 5. On the mound, Wheeler has posted 3 scoreless outings in his last 4 starts, and Boyd has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 2.

BET UNDER 7.5 (-102).

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