Marlins at Pirates odds, picks and predictions

The Miami Marlins (24-39) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (26-40) open a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from PNC Park is at 6:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Marlins vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 2-1

The Marlins dropped 2 of 3 at the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend and have lost 6 of their last 7. In Sunday’s 3-2 series finale loss, RP Valente Bellozo gave up a 2-run homer to 1B Yandy Diaz in the fifth, and RP Calvin Faucher later surrendered a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the eighth. DH Heriberto Hernandez went 3-for-3 with a run scored in the losing effort.

The Pirates are coming off a 3-game home sweep of the Philadelphia Phillies and have won 4 of their last 5. SP Paul Skenes was dominant again in Sunday’s 2-1 win, allowing just 2 hits and 1 unearned run over 7 2/3 innings while striking out 7. He didn’t factor into the decision, as DH Andrew McCutchen delivered the go-ahead RBI single in the eighth after Skenes was relieved by RP Braxton Ashcraft, who earned his first win of the season.

Marlins at Pirates projected starters

RHP Eury Perez vs. RHP Mike Burrows

Perez (5-6, 3.15 ERA in 2023) is making his 2025 debut and his first start since 2023 following Tommy John surgery. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 in 91 1/3 innings across 19 starts as a 20-year-old rookie in 2023.

• Last start vs. Pirates: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 2-0 home victory June 25, 2023
• 2025 minor league stats: 1-1, 1.99 ERA (22 2/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 8 starts

Burrows (1-1, 5.27 ERA) makes his fourth start. The rookie has allowed 14 hits and 4 walks with 11 K’s through 13 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 3-0 home victory over Houston Astros Wednesday
• Has never faced Marlins

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Marlins at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Pirates -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+165) | Pirates +1.5 (-200)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -118 | U: -102)

Marlins at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 4, Marlins 2

The Marlins are only 10-19 on the road this season and have lost their last 5 series openers.

The Pirates are 17-18 at home and 8-5 in their last 13 games at PNC Park. They have held opponents to 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 10 games.

Burrows was sharp in his last outing, while Perez is set to make his 2025 debut and likely won’t pitch deep into the game.

BET PIRATES (-115).

You get better odds playing the Pirates straight up than taking their run line at -200.

PASS.

Two of the 3 meetings did not reach 8 total runs.

Seven of the Marlins’ last 9 games and 6 of the Pirates’ last 9 have stayed under 8 total runs.

BET UNDER 8 (-102).

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