UFC 316 predictions – MMA Fighting

UFC 316 has two champions in action, though only one is being shown the respect worthy of a titleholder.

Men’s bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili has already proven he can beat Sean O’Malley and he’s expected to do the same when they rematch in Saturday’s main event. Since their first fight in September, Dvalishvili defended his belt once with an impressive performance against the highly touted (and no longer undefeated) Umar Nurmagomedov, while O’Malley has enjoyed some time away from the grind while recovering from hip surgery and making a few pivotal lifestyle changes.

In Dvalishvili’s past 12 fights, no one has been able to solve the puzzle the relentless Georgian presents, and few expect O’Malley to break that trend.

On the women’s side of the 135-pound roster, two-time champion Julianna Peña is a massive underdog to challenger Kayla Harrison. Fans have long touted Harrison as a future UFC champion—she is already No. 1 in the division in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings—and her combat sports accolades to this point are impressive: She became the first American to win gold in judo at the 2012 Olympics and then repeated that feat four years later. She won her first 15 pro bouts, a run that included two tournament wins at 145 pounds.

Harrison has made a smooth transition to the UFC, finishing former champion Holly Holm in her debut and then winning a gritty decision over longtime contender Ketlen Vieira. Depending where you look, oddsmakers have positioned Harrison as high as an 8-to-1 favorite. “And New” is expected in the co-main event.

But Peña’s whole reputation is built on doing the impossible as she was the lone woman to score a win over Amanda Nunes during the former two-division champion’s legendary 14-1 run. If she could upset Nunes, then a win over the less-heralded Harrison can’t be out of the question.

In other main card action, Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer meet in a middleweight grudge match originally scheduled for UFC Mexico, streaking UFC bantamweight contender welcomes former Bellator star Patchy Mix to the octagon, and Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland square off in a welterweight strikers’ duel.

What: UFC 316

Where: Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.

When: Saturday, June 7. The four-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Disney+, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on ESPN, ESPN+ and Disney+ at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Merab Dvalishvili (1, P4P-4) vs. Sean O’Malley (3, P4P-19)

Alright, so what’s different this time around?

On the Sean O’Malley side, at least, we’re told there are some wholesale changes to consider. First and foremost, O’Malley’s hip should be in considerably better condition after he underwent surgery to address a torn labrum he had going into the first Merab Dvalishvili fight. Whether it would have made a difference or not, that’s a legitimate excuse, and something to consider if O’Malley is indeed fully recovered.

Secondly, he’s given up the wacky tobacky. It’s possible this might hinder more than help, but the fact he’s even willing to make that kind of sacrifice in his quest to regain the bantamweight title speaks volumes. He will put on a better effort Saturday.

Will that change the outcome? It’s unclear.

Dvalishvili has always been a tough style matchup for O’Malley and it’s no mystery why. He can take O’Malley down at will to nullify his dangerous striking and he lives for five-round fights. None of this is ideal for O’Malley, who built his reputation on being a thrilling knockout artist. Even if he manages to land more big hits than in the last fight, he’s still dealing with a, ahem, machine that refuses to stop working.

O’Malley gets 25 more minutes to land the knockout blow and if he does, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. But I saw enough in their first fight to lean towards Dvalishvili even if they fought a dozen times.

Pick: Dvalishvili

Julianna Peña (2, P4P-13) vs. Kayla Harrison (1, P4P-4)

You know what else wouldn’t surprise me? Julianna Peña beating Kayla Harrison.

That might be blasphemous to say given how many fans are putting their hopes on Harrison to revitalize the women’s bantamweight division—especially with an Amanda Nunes return looming—but the MMA Gods care not for your narratives. If the scales tip Peña’s way, resulting in a continued 135-pound malaise and “The Lioness” deciding to just chill with her cubs instead of coming back, then so it is.

As amusingly macabre as that would be, I’m going with the safe pick in Harrison.

The 34-year-old still has plenty of growing to do and she’s been thrown into the deep end of the bantamweight rankings after facing lesser competition in several of her PFL bouts. Her grappling remains her greatest strength, but she also has more-than-enough power in her hands to floor Peña if a brawl breaks out.

Peña has to rely on her cardio and stick-to-itiveness to get through this one. I’m curious to see how she’ll react if she’s taken down early, whether she’ll attempt to fight off her back or work to get up to her feet immediately. If she can apply any forward pressure in the fight, that will change the tone. Assuming she doesn’t get judo-throwed to another dimension.

There are so many voices trashing Peña’s style, it almost feels like its destiny for her to stick it to the haters and leave another indelible stamp on the bantamweight division. That day may come, but it won’t be at Harrison’s expense. Speaking of destiny, it’s time for Harrison to claim hers.

Pick: Harrison

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer

When I wrote about this matchup back in March, I highlighted Joe Pyfer’s size and athleticism while mentioning how Kelvin Gastelum’s experience, toughness, and boxing could give him the advantage as the bout progresses. One other aspect to consider was the elevation of Mexico City, which may have played a part in the bout falling through altogether when Pyfer fell ill.

The re-booked matchup takes place at the considerably less elevated Newark and that can only be good for Pyfer. He still has to deal with a veteran known for never gassing out, but Pyfer should be able to manage his energy better without worrying about any debilitating external factors.

Truly, there’s no excuse for Pyfer to be at anything but his best, and at his best he has the makings of a compelling contender that can knock out anyone at 185 pounds. If he stays patient, the finish will come, most likely via submission after scoring a knockdown.

Pick: Pyfer

Mario Bautista (10) vs. Patchy Mix (6, P4P-16)

Justice for José Aldo!

OK, we should probably all move on from Aldo’s loss to Mario Bautista—joking, never will—and focus on how he has a golden opportunity to spoil Patchy Mix’s debut. Bautista doesn’t deserve half the crap—joking, he does—he gets for walling-and-stalling to “beat” the great Aldo, but he should definitely consider mixing things up against Mix.

Just holding on to Mix and praying for a couple of favorable scorecards isn’t a viable strategy. If Bautista wants to hang out along the fence, Mix will happily battle for underhooks and cage position until he’s on Bautista’s back. That’s when things get really hairy.

There’s a dormant dynamic fighter inside of Bautista, I truly want to believe that, especially if he’s to prove he’s deserving of a title shot. But I know Mix will deliver, unintimidated by the bright lights, and when the situation presents itself he’ll lock in a rear-naked choke for the win.

Pick: Mix

Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland

I was premature declaring Vicente Luque as being “washed” (I was just trying to sound edgy and cool) ahead of his most recent fight with Themba Gorimbo. The skill and experience difference was too much and Luque cruised to a submission win in under a minute.

As my guy Jed Meshew likes to say, “I’m never wrong. Just early.”

Kevin Holland should have this one. When he competes at 170 pounds, Holland can look like a world beater. I’m inclined to believe his anti-hype for this fight in which he flat-out said this matchup is past its best-before date and he expects to run through Luque.

The Brazilian veteran won’t make it easy for him, but eventually Holland’s speed will pick up and he’ll push a pace that Luque can’t match due to all the tread on his tires. I’m going as far as to predict Holland dominates the majority of this matchup before knocking Luque out in Round 1 or Round 2.

Pick: Holland

Preliminaries

Joshua Van def. Bruno Silva

Azamat Murzakanov (13) def. Brendson Ribeiro

Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Serghei Spivac (9)

Andreas Gustafsson def. Khaos Williams

Wang Cong def. Ariane da Silva

Joo Sang Yoo def. Jeka Saragih

Quillan Salkilld def. Yanal Ashmouz

MarQuel Mederos def. Mark Choinski