who will win the yellow jersey? – Rouleur

The Tour de France build-up is in full swing with riders taking to their final warm-up races ahead of the year’s biggest race. The 2025 edition looks set to be another thrilling edition, featuring a gruelling mountainous parcours in the final two weeks and a start list packed full of stars.

All the focus will once again be on the rivalry between defending champion Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates-XRG) and the two-time winner Jonas Vingegaard (Visma-Lease a Bike), who are certainly the main Tour de France favourites, having split the past four editions between them. But there will be those trying to challenge their duopoly, including last year’s third-place finisher Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step) and five-time Grand Tour winner Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe).

There are plenty of other riders dreaming big for this Tour, but they’ll face an uphill battle in unseating Pogačar and Vingegaard if they are riding at the top of their form. 

Here are the current favourites for the 2025 Tour de France as the bookmakers see it. We’ll keep this page updated as the odds change.

Odds correct at time of publishing.

Tadej Pogačar – 5/6

Tadej Pogačar’s 2024 season was undeniably one of the greatest in cycling history. Not only did he win the Tour de France for a third time, but he completed a historic Grand Tour double with the Giro d’Italia, and then finished his season spectacularly with victory at the World Championships. 

There are no signs that form has waned for the Slovenian in 2025; he has won five out of the eight races he started (before the Critérium du Dauphiné) and has not finished lower than third all season.

Pogačar has continued the immense form he showed in 2025 (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

That form has seen him marked as the odds-on favourite to defend his Tour title, particularly given his closest rival Vingegaard, has not raced extensively this year. The only question mark you could perhaps put on Pogačar ahead of the Tour is a relative lack of stage racing, having only taken part in the UAE Tour before a full run of Classics. A strong showing at the Dauphiné could put that right, but there is little doubt that Pogačar will be firmly in the running for a fourth Tour title this year.

Jonas Vingegaard – 2/1

Given he has won the Tour twice already, and that he pushed Pogačar for some of last year’s race despite coming back from severe injuries, the odds here perhaps belie Vingegaard’s ability to compete with the world champion over the Tour’s terrain.

The Dane has raced sparingly this year, having crashed out of Paris-Nice with concussion in March before spending a significant spell on the sidelines. It leaves a form a little unknown, though a strong performance at the Dauphiné will likely slash his odds further.

Vingegaard has an outstanding record in Grand Tours (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

However, Vingegaard is reliably consistent at Grand Tours. Aside from his debut at the Vuelta a España (when he was working for Roglič as a domestique), he hasn’t finished lower than second in his five other Grand Tour appearances, so is deserving of odds so short despite not racing much so far this year.

Remco Evenepoel – 9/1

Evenepoel has been gradually building back from injury (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

There’s a fairly stark gap between the top two favourites and third in the list, even if it is former world champion Remco Evenepoel. The Belgian has himself admitted that his first task is to close the gap to Pogačar and Vingegaard, having finished over nine minutes down on winner Pogačar last year. His odds reflect that current chasm in stage racing prowess, and the bookies agree that it could be too soon for Evenepoel to challenge for the yellow jersey this year.

Primož Roglič – 28/1

There’s a sense that Primož Roglič’s chance at winning the Tour may have slipped by him after devastatingly losing out to Pogačar on the penultimate day in 2020, but the Slovenian returns for another shot at the yellow jersey in 2025. The 35-year-old’s palmarès has earned him his spot as fourth favourite here, as have some impressive performances this year, including at the Volta a Catalunya in March. But a disappointing Giro d’Italia has left question marks over Roglič’s ability to remain competitive with the best riders in Grand Tours, and he remains at fairly long odds to triumph in Paris in July.

Roglič will need to bounce back quickly from a disappointing Giro (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

João Almeida – 28/1

Having only won one WorldTour stage race since 2021, João Almeida is clearly in some of his best ever form in 2025, winning two already this year at Itzulia Basque Country and the Tour de Romandie. The Portuguese is unlikely to be given much freedom to chase his own ambitions by UAE Team Emirates-XRG at the Tour and will instead be charged with supporting Tadej Pogačar.

Almeida managed to finish fourth last year despite working for Pogačar (Photo: Billy Ceusters/ASO)

But as Adam Yates did two years ago when he helped his leader to second overall and finished third overall himself, there’s every chance Almeida could fight for the podium if he can stay amongst the GC contenders after doing his work for Pogačar. He did exactly that to finish fourth last year, but at almost 10 minutes down to Evenepoel, he would need a lot to go his way to bridge to the leading trio if they all remain in the race.

Matteo Jorgenson – 55/1

Jorgenson could be a grand tour winner in the making (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

Like Almeida, Jorgenson could ride himself into a decent GC position while supporting his Visma-Lease a Bike leader Jonas Vingegaard, as well as provide the team with a tactical card to play in the mountains. There’s no doubt the American will have to play second fiddle to Vingegaard, but an eighth place last year was a best ever Grand Tour result and demonstrated Jorgenson has the quality to compete over three weeks and claim a podium spot at the very least in the future.

Florian Lipowitz – 100/1 

A relatively unknown quantity in Grand Tours compared to the aforementioned riders, Florian Lipowitz has the opportunity to fly under the radar and score a career-best Grand Tour result. A seventh at the Vuelta last year is his only overall result to date, but he has shown good form in his limited racing so far this year, finishing second at Paris-Nice and fourth at Itzulia Basque Country.

Florian Lipowitz is largely untested at Grand Tour level (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

The 24-year-old German will potentially be made to put teammate Roglič’s chances ahead of his own, but likewise will be required to stay up high in GC in case his team leader drops out. A win at the Tour feels a colossal stretch at this point, but the bookies rate him as the best of the real outsiders.

Matthias Skjelmose – 150/1

Lidl-Trek’s Matthias Skjelmose made no secret of his desire to try his first Grand Tour GC campaign at the Giro this year, but his team decided otherwise and will send him to the Tour. The Dane has proven his credentials in week-long stage races and one-day races, but whether he can fight for a top GC result at the Tour could go either way. A fifth at last year’s Vuelta was a level step up in Grand Tour racing, but given the field assembled for the Tour, a podium seems like a real long shot, and the bookies agree.

Skjelmose is at long odds to top the Tour podium in Paris (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

Other contenders

Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost) at 150/1 is ranked amongst the outsiders following his Giro d’Italia podium, and while the Ecuadorian is slated to ride the Tour, it seems more likely he’ll chase stages than GC given his efforts in Italy. 

Another leftenant of Vingegaard, Sepp Kuss, is unlikely to have any aspirations on GC but is similarly ranked at 150/1, ahead of some riders who would love to be amongst the top 10, including Ben O’Connor (Jayco Alula), Felix Gall (Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale), and Enric Mas (Movistar), Lenny Martinez (Bahrain Victorious), all at 200/1.

Mas is yet to bring his Vuelta form to the Tour in his career (Photo: Zac Williams/SWpix.com)

Giro winner Simon Yates (Visma-Lease Bike) will be all-in to help Vingegaard, but has been given odds of 200/1 as well. Fellow Brit and 2020 Giro winner Tao Geoghegan Hart (Lidl-Trek) is at 225/1 following a long comeback from injury.

Former Tour winner Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers) has been given a very outside shot at 300/1 in his final career Grand Tour, while his teammate Carlos Rodríguez remains conspicuously absent from the Oddschecker listings, but we’ll add him in here when he’s given odds.

Cover image by Zac Williams/SWpix.com