Should Maple Leafs pursue Sam Bennett in NHL free agency? Weighing the pros and cons

The Toronto Maple Leafs need a centre and playoff performer, and Sam Bennett, the Florida Panthers’ Conn Smythe Trophy contender, just might become available in the coming weeks.

If Bennett decides to leave the Panthers and test free agency, and, crucially, is willing to spend the rest of his career in Toronto (which may be unlikely), should the Maple Leafs put in a bid?

Let’s weigh the pros and cons.

Pro: Playoff warrior

Bruce Banner in the regular season, Bennett morphs into the Hulk every postseason.

Bennett is having the playoff of his life this spring, scoring in what seems like every game for the Panthers.

The moment never seems too big for him. Or maybe a better way of putting it is that he consistently meets the moment with the goal, hit or play (legal or otherwise) that his team needs.

The Leafs clearly could use a guy like that.

Unlike most of the Leafs’ core players during this playoff-stumbling era, Bennett produces a lot more in the playoffs than he does in the regular season.

Bennett’s per-82 regular-season production: 19 goals and 40 points

Bennett’s per-82 playoff production: 31 goals and 60 points

Even in Calgary, where his role never quite seemed secure, Bennett put a dent on the scoresheet in the postseason: He had six goals and 13 points in 15 games in his final two playoffs as a Flame.

It’s not just the production either.

Bennett makes his presence felt in other ways.

Nobody has accumulated more hits in the last four postseasons than Bennett, and it’s not even close.

Con: The huge contract!

Bennett’s last deal, which expires after this season, was for four years and came with a cap hit of $4.4 million. That cap hit ranked 233rd in the NHL this past season, which is obviously incredible value.

The Panthers have done a lot right and it’s not just the big, bold swings. It’s stuff like that, signing good players before they pop.

A deal that more than doubles Bennett’s cap hit, even with the salary cap rising and rising some more after that? That’s the opposite of value. A cap hit of more than $10 million, for instance, would have Bennett leaping from the 233rd-highest cap hit into the top 20 next season.

Is Bennett one of the 20 best players in the league? Obviously not — though in the playoffs, maybe? The definition of a $10 million player may be changing, but that’s still a lot of coin for a player who has never scored 30 goals or hit even 60 points and has no elite skill.

How much is a good regular-season player, great playoff performer worth? I can’t recall a potential free agent whose value was tied up so much in the postseason.

What if he isn’t quite as impactful in the playoffs as a Leaf, and is still drawing one of the largest cap hits in the league? The Leafs would be betting a lot that his playoff performances translate, and for a long time.

Bennett will also be 29 when next season begins. How will age impact his performance, playoffs or otherwise? How long will he remain a quality No. 2 centre? The Leafs won’t want to be paying a third-line centre $10 million-ish annually a season or two from now.

Pro: He addresses a need — with no assets spent

The Leafs have a huge need in the middle, whether John Tavares re-signs or not.

Though there may be centres who could be had in a trade, the Leafs may lack the assets to acquire them.

Sign Bennett and the Leafs can hang onto the remaining stuff they have — namely, Easton Cowan and the best of the leftover draft picks.

Con: Better players could be available next summer

Pay up for Bennett now and the Leafs, even with the cap projected to rise again to $104 million for the 2026-27 season, could price themselves out of the summer of 2026 when the pool of free agents could be much glitzier and more appealing.

It’s not just Connor McDavid. Jack Eichel, Kirill Kaprizov, Artemi Panarin and Kyle Connor could all become available (though their respective teams may not let that happen).

Pro: He scores playoff goals

These are the players, heading into Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final, with more playoff goals than Bennett since 2022: Leon Draisaitl (40), Zach Hyman (35), McDavid (32) and Carter Verhaeghe (31). That’s it. That’s the list.

Bennett has 27 goals and counting over those four postseasons, which includes this spring’s incredible run of 14 goals in 20 games so far.

One more goal for the Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final and Bennett will match Sidney Crosby’s and Alex Ovechkin’s largest goal totals in a single postseason. It’s unlikely, but also not out of the realm of possibility, that he makes a run for the all-time mark of 19 goals, held by Reggie Leach and Jari Kurri.

Among players who have played in at least 30 games over that run of four playoffs, Bennett’s 0.39 goals per game ranks 16th in the NHL — just in front of Auston Matthews (0.36), Sam Reinhart (0.36), Tavares (0.34) and Matthew Tkachuk (0.34).

What have the Leafs been lacking each and every spring? Players who will reliably put the puck in the net.

Sam Bennett has an incredible 14 goals in 20 games so far this postseason. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)

Con: He may not top 30 goals and/or 60 points in the regular season

This is what makes the playoff production so remarkable: Bennett is a fairly ordinary scorer in the regular season.

His career high for goals through nine NHL regular seasons: 28.

He has three 20-goal seasons, all of which have come as a Panther.

Bennett’s career high for points in a single season: 51, which came in 76 games in a contract year this past season.

His totals in the two previous regular seasons: 40 points in 63 games and 41 points in 69 games, respectively.

And that was in Florida, through his mid to late 20s, with a usually superb set of linemates.

In his last four seasons, Bennett has produced 181 points in 279 games, the same total as Tyler Bertuzzi.

None of it would matter quite as much were the contract not so large (presumably).

If the Leafs add Bennett, they might only reasonably expect 20 goals and 40-50 points in the regular season from the third-highest-paid player on the team and one of the highest-paid players in the league, period.

It’s easy to see that production, because of the contract, attracting a whole lot of scrutiny in Toronto — which would only drive up the pressure on Bennett to be a rock star once again in the playoffs.

Pro: He would see more opportunity in Toronto

Sign with the Leafs and Bennett would be granted first-unit power-play opportunity, the kind of opportunity he isn’t getting right now in Florida. (He still drew nearly 2.5 minutes per game during the regular season.)

Bennett had only seven goals and 11 points on the power play this past regular season, playing on the Panthers’ second unit. Double that output with a regular PP1 gig (with at least one spot likely to become open), and suddenly Bennett could become a 30-goal, 70-point regular-season guy.

Couple that guy with the playoff performance and intangible qualities, and suddenly that contract might not look quite as bloated.

Con: He won’t be in Florida

This is a big one, with so many layers.

To start, how will Bennett perform without Tkachuk — and one of Verhaeghe and Evan Rodrigues — by his side?

Bennett has spent so much time with Tkachuk over the past few seasons (almost 1,800 five-on-five minutes) that there isn’t a huge sample size of his effectiveness without him (just under 600 minutes).

But here’s what we’ve got over the last three regular seasons:

Bennett with and without Tkachuk (22-25)

WIthWithout

Goals-for

59%

41%

Expected goals-for

59%

53%

Shot attempts-for

59%

53%

Bennett may get William Nylander on his wing in Toronto, though it’s not clear if their games would mesh quite the same way. And it’s unlikely that the second winger on the line, if the first one is Nylander, will have Verhaeghe’s abilities.

There’s also Bennett’s slotting with the Panthers.

Because Florida has Aleksander Barkov and the rising Anton Lundell, Bennett’s line tends to draw somewhat lesser competition; often third lines. Bennett’s most frequent forward opponent from the Leafs in this spring’s second-round series was Max Domi, followed by Scott Laughton and Bobby McMann.

It’s unlikely he would draw such cozy slotting in Toronto.

The Leafs would need him, as their clear-cut No. 2, to square off against stiffer competition.

His importance to the team would be much higher in Toronto, too, where the talent isn’t quite as wide-ranging as in Florida.

Will Bennett feel comfortable playing in Canada again? He didn’t have the most pleasant experience in Calgary, where, as a first-round Flames pick drafted (and then traded) by current Leafs general manager Brad Treliving, he struggled and found himself constantly in trade rumours.

It’s what may lead him to stick with the Panthers.

Pro: He is the DNA change

Treliving, who used his first draft pick as Flames GM in 2014 on Bennett, once talked about the Leafs needing more “snot” (which led to the Leafs signing Bertuzzi, Domi and Ryan Reaves). This past spring, he spoke about the need for change in the team’s DNA at playoff time.

Bennett is what the Leafs GM was — is — looking for.

He’s a pain in the butt to play against. He straddles and, occasionally, crosses lines. The Leafs witnessed that firsthand in this year’s playoffs when Bennett knocked out Anthony Stolarz for what ended up being the entire series. (Stolarz returned as a backup in Game 7.) While they were mad about what happened and believed a suspension was warranted, they were also likely envious of Bennett’s if-you’re-not-cheating-you’re-not-trying mentality, his willingness to play in and around the edge.

Bennett would give the Leafs that dimension, an effective agitator in the mould of Darcy Tucker; one they don’t have otherwise.

Ruling

Every indication is that Bennett is unlikely to leave Florida, especially for Toronto. But what if Bennett — via his agent, Darren Ferris — is willing to at least consider the Leafs on the premise of a huge offer?

It’s a tough call.

Bennett would solve a present-day need (when few other paths are available) and could give the Leafs the boost they’ve been looking for in the playoffs. But the risk would be massive, given the likely stakes of the contract, with huge downside.

I wouldn’t do it, but I can see how the Leafs might convince themselves that they have to.

— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference, Puck Pedia

(Top photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)