CONNOR MCDAVID PICKS, PREDICTIONS & BEST BETS FOR PANTHERS VS OILERS GAME 5

Playing at home is music to Connor McDavid’s ears with his points flourishing when the Oilers are in Edmonton and expect no different in Game 5.

Jun 14, 2025 • 11:53 ET

• 4 min read

Photo By – Imagn Images. Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) reacts against the Florida Panthers.

Connor McDavid took the Florida Panthers by storm early in the series, producing multi-point efforts in each home game while picking up five points along the way.

I expect McDavid to pick up where he left off in Game 5 and put forth an impact offensive performance, as he’s done on home soil all throughout the playoffs.

Let’s take a look at my favorite ways to back McDavid with my NHL picks for Panthers vs. Oilers on Saturday, June 14.

Connor McDavid player prop picks

• Best bet
  Connor McDavid Over 1.5 points
  (-125)
• SGP pick
  Connor McDavid Over 1.5 points
  Connor McDavid anytime goal
  Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 assists
  (+325)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Connor McDavid best bet

Connor McDavid Over 1.5 points (-125 at BET99)

Connor McDavid produced multiple points in 43% of his regular season games. He’s taken things up a notch in the playoffs, hitting the scoresheet two times or more in 55% of his appearances.

McDavid has been especially productive on home soil. He’s averaged exactly two points per game and cleared this line in seven of nine games (77%), including each of the first two against the Florida Panthers.

The Edmonton Oilers are able to control the matchups on home soil. Kris Knoblauch generally tends to throw Leon Draisaitl to the wolves more so than McDavid, freeing up the game’s most electric offensive player to play in more advantageous matchups. It has paid off time and time again and we have evidence in this very series.

At 5-on-5 the Oilers controlled 56% of the expected goals, and generated 4.04 xG per 60 minutes, with McDavid on the ice over the first two games.

Those numbers fell off a cliff on the road, with McDavid posting a 41 xGF% and helping the Oilers generate just 2.30 xG per 60 minutes. A steady dose of Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, and Gustav Forsling will do that to anyone.

McDavid should have less of that trio in his diet Saturday night, which increases his chances of taking the game right over.

Connor McDavid same-game parlay

Connor McDavid Over 1.5 points

Connor McDavid anytime goal

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins Over 0.5 assists

If McDavid is to record multiple points, there’s a good chance one of them is a goal. The two are heavily correlated so we’ll start there.

McDavid appears to be a ticking time bomb when it comes to scoring. He has recorded 17 shots on goal, 18 scoring chances, and 2.38 expected goals through the first four games yet not one has entered the net.

Of Edmonton’s eight leaders in shots against Florida, McDavid is the only one who hasn’t scored.

Including both teams, McDavid is the only guy who cracks the Top-8 in expected goals yet to find twine.

The shots and chances have been there – especially on home soil – and he just hasn’t converted. Call me crazy but I don’t think that’s going to continue for the best player in the league.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is attached to the hip of Connor McDavid. They play together at 5-on-5 as well as on the top power play unit.

RNH is a pass-first player who has really stepped up after an underwhelming regular season. He has 14 assists over his last 17 games, including eight spanning the past eight games on home soil.

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