Tropical storm Dalila forms south of Mexico as Atlantic basin remains dormant

AccuWeather’s Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite of Tropical Storm Dalila on Saturday morning. (AccuWeather)

The eastern Pacific Ocean has spawned a new tropical storm, Dalila, which will swipe southern Mexico with flooding downpours and gusty winds. Meanwhile, the Atlantic basin remains dormant for now, but AccuWeather hurricane experts say it may spring to life during the second half of the month.

The East Pacific is quickly gaining momentum following a slow start to the season, which officially began on May 15. Four storms have been named since May 28 — Alvin, Barbara, Cosme and now Dalila. Tropical Storm Dalila is more than a month ahead of time. The historical average formation date for the fourth-named storm in the Eastern Pacific is Jul 15.

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Dalila, which AccuWeather identified as a tropical rainstorm ahead of all other known sources on Thursday, was designated Tropical Depression 4-E by the National Hurricane Center on Friday morning before quickly being upgraded to a tropical storm.

“Rain and wind from Dalila is likely to skirt the western coast of Mexico through this weekend before the storm moves westward into the open waters of the Pacific,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.

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Most of the wind associated with the tropical storm will stay offshore, but gusts can occasionally reach 40-60 mph along the immediate southern coastline of Mexico.

The most significant impact in the region will be in the form of rain, with a swath of 2-4 inches expected with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 8 inches. Flooding and mudslides can occur, especially since this zone recently got hit with tropical downpours from Barbara.

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Due to flooding rain and gusty winds, Tropical Storm Dalila is rated less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in Mexico.

“Beyond Dalila, another area could develop between June 17 and 20. This area of concern would be farther to the east, likely just offshore of the far southern coast of Mexico or even just offshore of Guatemala, but would likely take a similar track,” Pydynowski said.

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When will the Atlantic basin spring to life?

Copious amounts of wind shear and dry, dusty air from the Sahara Desert have put a lid on tropical development in the Atlantic Ocean since the start of the basin’s hurricane season on June 1.

“There are some signs that tropical development could occur later in the month, however, in the Bay of Campeche, between June 19 and 21,” Pydynowski said.

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Even if a tropical depression or storm does not organize, tropical downpours are expected to frequent portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico into late June, which can enhance the risk of flooding and mudslides.

“Any potential tropical depression or storm would likely be short-lived and remain mainly south of the United States, but some of its tropical moisture could be drawn northward into South Texas, even if there is no organized tropical development,” Pydynowski said.

AccuWeather is expecting a near- to above-historical-average Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane season for 2025. Between three and six named tropical cyclones are forecast to directly impact the U.S.

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