Padres at Diamondbacks odds, picks and predictions

The San Diego Padres (38-29) visit the Arizona Diamondbacks (34-34) Friday for the opener of a 3-game series. First pitch from Chase Field is set for 9:40 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Padres won 7-6 last year

The Padres lost to the LA Dodgers 5-2 Wednesday, closing as +136 moneyline underdogs. San Diego has traded off winning and losing in 7 straight games and is 4-3 over its last 2 road series. The Padres have struggled offensively, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their last 7 games.

The Diamondbacks have had a strange last few weeks. They swept the Atlanta Braves in 3 games from June 3-5 and then were swept in 3 by the Cincinnati Reds from June 7-8. They are coming off a sweep over the Seattle Mariners, closing the series with a 5-2 win Wednesday. Arizona has won 4 straight at home.

Padres at Diamondbacks projected starters

RHP Stephen Kolek vs. RHP Ryne Nelson

Kolek (3-1, 3.00 ERA) makes his eighth start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 through 42 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 4-3 road loss vs. Milwaukee Brewers Saturday
• 2025 away stats: 2-0, 0.85 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 5 starts
• Career vs. Diamondbacks: 1-0, 1.23 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 6 relief appearances, all in 2024

Nelson (2-2, 4.60 ERA) makes his fifth start and 15th appearance. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 45 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 7 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 3 K in 13-1 road loss vs. Cincinnati Reds Saturday
• 2025 home stats: 2-1, 2.67 ERA (27 IP, 8 ER), 0.89 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in 2 starts and 6 relief appearances
• Career vs. Padres: 3-3, 5.61 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 in 8 starts and 1 relief appearance

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Padres at Diamondbacks odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:15 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Padres +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Diamondbacks -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-200) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Padres at Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Diamondbacks 4

BET PADRES (+110).

Kolek has been a stud on the road this season, and the Padres are 3-2 throughout his 5 starts. They have been extremely streaky over the last week and are primed to win after a Wednesday defeat.

The Diamondbacks haven’t performed well with Nelson on the mound, going just 1-3 in his 4 starts. Arizona sits in the bottom half of the league at just 23-22 as a favorite this season.

Considering the pitching trends, take PADRES (+110).

PASS.

The Padres (-200) are far too expensive to play as run-line underdogs here, while the Giants (+165) are too risky as favorites, especially with Nelson starting on the mound. Avoid this play.

BET UNDER 9.5 (-115).

The Diamondbacks are 1-3 O/U through Nelson’s 4 starts this season. They have allowed 4 or fewer runs in 4 straight games and are 31-32-5 O/U on the season.

The Padres have gone Under in 5 of their last 7 games. While their scoring has been down, they have allowed 4 or fewer runs in 5 of those 7 games as well. They are 27-38-2 O/U on the year.

Back UNDER 9.5 (-115).

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