Thunderstorm Update With Possible Flooding Downpours Friday June 13 And Into The Weekend

Friday, June 13, Afternoon Update

A frontal boundary is draped over north central Maryland with impulses of energy arriving from the west to team up with the afternoon heating. The surface weather is the important factor here. Winds are generally FROM the East. Southeast, where it is warm and humid, and North to Northeast, where it is cooler. This direction ENHANCES weather systems as it brings moisture in from the Atlantic and upslope to higher elevations inland. That means more rising air and taller clouds. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are forming and are more likely to expand through tonight. The slow movement can make them very heavy rain producers.

NOAA Severe Storm Risk

Focus will be on slow-moving thunderstorms that can produce local flooding. However, it is possible that some cells may produce damaging winds over 58 mph.

Along the frontal boundary, some cells could spin to allow for higher tops, large hail, or even an isolated tornado.

Alerts To Consider:

• A WATCH is issued when there is a greater POTENTIAL for severe storms. It will list counties and cover a 4 to 6-hour time window.
• A WARNING is issued when A STORM FORMS AND IS BEING TRACKED! This will list towns in the path and is usually a 45-minute window.

This setup has small impulses that are hard to plot and track. As a result, refining specific locations with storm cells and timing may be difficult to impossible.

If you have plans outdoors, I will show a few short-range models, but they are far from perfect. They are suggestions, and I will not be able to show everyone with full accuracy.

The best suggestion I can make is to consider a good chance for one or a few storms through today AND Saturday afternoon/evening. You may get many dry hours, but if you go ahead with your plans, you should still have a safety plan for lightning.

Live Radar Widget

Set Up: Why Is This Happening?

The upper-level setup may allow for slow-moving cells!

Wide View

The larger view shows Low Pressure in Central Missouri helping to pump in plenty of warm, moist air from the south. To the north, a large pool of cooler air creates the clash along the boundary marked by this stationary front.

Waves of energy will ride along this front for a few days. As they arrive, the location of the front will determine where the focus of storms may be tracked.

Closer Look

The stationary boundary has been identified in central Maryland near I-68/I-70. This is where the majority of thunderstorms are expected to generate and travel.

Temperatures at 3 PM

This may help show where the front is located based on the slightly cooler air to the north. PA is in the upper 70s to lower 80s, while Central Maryland is in the upper 80s to near 90°F with notable humidity.

Radar Snapshot at 3 PM

Radar Simulation 4 PM to 2 AM Saturday

Snapshots

6 PM

9 PM

11 PM

2 AM

SATURDAY WEATHER

When will it rain and where? There is no solid intel between these two high-resolution computer models.

NAM 3 Km is our old, regularly used model. Based on this, there may be a morning shower AND a stronger storm cell in metro Baltimore. Then the focus will shift south.

I AM NOT SOLD YET.

The RRFS Experimental Model is the newer expanded view based on the HRRR Modeling, which has a different story. It keeps the risk of strong to severe storms all across Central Maryland through Virginia late afternoon and evening.

I AM NOT CONVINCED ON THIS EITHER.

My best suggestion is a hybrid between these two, so I will show both.

SIMULATIONS: SUGGESTIONS – NOT – A – PROMISE

NAM 3 Km Model 8 AM to Midnight

Afternoon Snapshots

2 PM

4 PM

6 PM

8 PM

RRFS Experimental Model 8 AM to Midnight

Evening Snapshots

6 PM

8 PM

Personal Note

7 Day Forecast

Subscribe for eMail Alerts

Weather posts straight to your inbox

Sign up and be the first to know!

Please share your thoughts and best weather pics/videos, or just keep in touch via social media.

THANK YOU:

Baltimore Magazine Readers Choice Best Of Baltimore

Maryland Trek 11 Day 7 Completed Sat August 10

We raised OVER $111,000 for Just In Power Kids – AND Still Collecting More

The annual event: Hiking and biking 329 miles in 7 days between The Summit of Wisp to Ocean City.

Each day, we honor a kid and their family’s cancer journey.

Fundraising is for Just In Power Kids: Funding Free Holistic Programs. I never have and never will take a penny. It is all for our nonprofit to operate.

Click here or the image to donate:

RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here, you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor who can check my work while writing and to have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm. #FITF