Pirates at Cubs odds, picks and predictions

THe Pittsburgh Pirates (28-42) visit the Chicago Cubs (42-27) Friday for the second game of their 4-game series. First pitch from Wrigley Field is at 2:20 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 3-1

The Pirates have won 5 of their last 7 games, but lost the series opener 3-2 on Thursday. They fell behind 3-0 and rallied for 2 runs in the seventh, but went down in order in the eighth and ninth innings. They were held to only 4 hits. SP Andrew Heaney fell to 3-5 on the season, but had a quality start (6 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 0 BB, 7 K).

The Cubs enterd the series on Thursday having lost 3 of their last 4 games. SP Jameson Taillon improved to 7-3, allowing 2 runs on 4 hits in 6 1/3 innings, and 3 relievers combined for 2 2/3 of hitless relief to close out the game. Offensively, they also only had 4 hits, but were powered by OF Pete Crow-Armstrong’s 18th home run and DH Seiya Suzuki’s 17th homer.

Pirates at Cubs projected starters

RHP Paul Skenes vs. RHP Cade Horton

Skenes (4-6, 1.88 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 0.84 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through a league-leading 91 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER (1 R), 2 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 2-1 home win over the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday
• Has 0.85 ERA over last 6 starts (4 ER, 42 1/3 IP) but is only 1-2 over that span
• Career vs. Cubs: 2-1, 2.88 ERA (25 IP, 8 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 11.5 K/9 in 5 starts
• 2025 road splits: 3-2, 1.19 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.82 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 in 7 starts

Horton (3-1, 4.11 ERA) makes his sixth career start and seventh appearance. He has a 1.30 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 30 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-0 road loss to the Detroit Tigers on Sunday
• Cubs are 4-1 in his 5 starts
• Making first-ever appearance against the Pirates
• 2025 home splits: 1-0, 4.09 ERA (11 IP, 5 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 in 2 starts

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Pirates at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:14 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Cubs -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+170) | Cubs +1.5 (-210)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 4, Cubs 2

Skenes has been outstanding over the last several weeks, allowing a total of 4 ER (5 runs total) over his last 6 starts, but the Pirates are only 3-3 in those starts.

The Pirates are 9-23 on the road this season, but are 3-4 in their last 7 away games and did not lose consecutive games on their last road trip, when they went 3-3 in Arizona and San Diego.

The Cubs, though, are 21-11 at home and have won 9 of their last 10 in the “friendly confines.”

Horton’s 4 runs allowed in his last outing were the most he has given up in a game this season. The Cubs have allowed 4 or more runs to their opponents in 4 of the last 5 games, and 4 runs will be too much against Skenes.

BET PIRATES (-105).

Six of the Cubs’ last 7 losses have been by more than 1 run, but the 3 of the Pirates’ last 5 wins have been by 1 run.

The Pirates are only 2-4 this season as road favorites. The plus odds are tempting, and perhaps you can sprinkle a little on the cover, but I’m staying safe and just sticking with the ML.

PASS.

Skenes’ last 2 starts and 5 of his last 7 outings have not surpassed 7 total runs. Two of the 4 meetings with the Cubs this season have not surpassed 7 total runs. Five of the Pirates’ last 7 wins have not reached 8 total runs.

The Cubs have been held to 2 or fewer runs in their last 6 losses.

BET UNDER 7 (-110).

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