Pirates at Cubs odds, picks and predictions

The Pittsburgh Pirates (28-41) and the Chicago Cubs (41-27) open a 4-game series Thursday. First pitch from Wrigley Field in Chicago is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Cubs lead 2-1

The Pirates are coming off a 2-1 series win over the Miami Marlins in Pittsburgh, wrapping up the set with a 5-2 victory as -159 favorites Wednesday with the Under (8.5) cashing. DH Andrew McCutchen hit a 3-run homer in the fifth inning Wednesday — his sixth of the year and 241st with Pittsburgh — moving him past Roberto Clemente for third on the Pirates’ all-time home run list behind Willie Stargell (475) and Ralph Kiner (301).

The Cubs dropped 2 of 3 games at the Philadelphia Phillies. They lost 7-2 in the Wednesday finale, failing to cash as a -104 pick’em with the total (9) pushing. 2B Nico Hoerner paced the offense in the finale, going 2-for-4 with an RBI double in the fourth inning.

Pirates at Cubs projected starters

LHP Andrew Heaney vs. RHP Jameson Taillon

Heaney (3-4, 3.24 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 through 72 1/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 2-1 home victory vs. Phillies Saturday
• 2025 road stats: 1-2, 3.58 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 6.6 K/9 in 6 starts
• 2025 vs. Cubs: 1 home start (April 29), loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 0 K in 9-0 defeat
• Career vs. Cubs: 0-2, 6.75 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 12 H, 3 BB, 7 K in 2 starts

Taillon (6-3, 3.54 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 76 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 6-1 victory at Detroit Tigers Saturday
• 2025 home stats: 2-1, 2.70 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 0.76 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 in 6 starts
• 2024 vs. Pirates: 1-1, 3.44 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 17 H, 3 BB, 10 K in 3 starts
• Career vs. Pirates: 2-2, 4.55 ERA (29 2/3 IP, 15 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 5.8 K/9 in 5 starts

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Pirates at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Pirates +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Cubs -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-125) | Cubs -1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Pirates at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 4, Pirates 2

The Cubs (-200) are 20-11 at home and will likely beat the Pirates, who are just 9-22 on the road. However, the preferred play is to bet Chicago on the run line at greater odds.

PASS on the ML.

The Cubs have won each of Taillon’s last 4 starts by at least 2 runs, while the Pirates have dropped 5 of Heaney’s last 8 outings by multiple runs — including a 9-0 loss to Chicago April 29. The Cubs also rank fourth in MLB with a 14-12 record on the run line as home favorites. Conversely, the Pirates have the third-worst run-line mark in the league as road underdogs at 12-13.

BET CUBS -1.5 (+105).

Taillon has allowed just 1 earned run in 3 of his last 4 starts, while Heaney has surrendered 2 or fewer runs in 5 of his last 6 games. Although the Cubs have been an Over team for much of the season — 34-26-8 O/U overall — they’ve been trending toward the Under lately, going 5-1-2 to the Under over their last 8 games.

BET UNDER 7.5 (-115).

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