Mitch Marner’s next contract and the burden of expectations

There is an interesting psychological phenomenon in sports fandom where satisfaction often hinges on expectations rather than actual performance. In a hard cap world where the dollar figure attached to a player is of the utmost importance, that experience can be put in overdrive.

It’s the burden of expectations and Mitch Marner might be hockey’s best current example.

Here’s an example of what that means. Take two players: Player A is a fourth-liner and Player B is an elite player. Over a seven-game stretch, Player A looks like a third-liner and Player B looks like a first-liner — who are fans happier with?

Nine times out of 10, even if Player B was unquestionably better than Player A, fans are often happier with Player A because he played better than expected. It’s the feeling of surprise vs. disappointment that often supersedes the actual performance difference between the two.

With that in mind, I have some empathy for the way Marner’s playoff performances with the Toronto Maple Leafs have been viewed. That’s in the sense that he generally has been one of the team’s best players each playoffs, but he just hasn’t been his usual level of good — especially offensively. There is a substantial drop-off in his playoff offensive rating vs. his expectations — one of the league’s 10 worst “offensive dawgs” over the last five years, in fact, and that skews the perception of his actual performance. That Marner has been one of the playoffs’ best defensive dawgs (his already-good Defensive Rating jumps by the third-most of any forward to play 41 or more playoff games over the last five years) is often ignored as well.

Whether that’s how Toronto’s superstars should be used — as shutdown specialists — is worthy of scrutiny, but Marner’s likely frustration is understandable through this lens. Marner is doing the “defense wins championships” stuff that is often viewed as necessary to win and following the lore of Steve Yzerman sacrificing offense for defense. It just hasn’t worked for the Maple Leafs.

One of the reasons for that is the Leafs have not been able to adequately create offensive depth behind their superstars, due partly to the cap constraints of said superstars. Marner may be sacrificing offense for defense (and arguably too much of it), but he didn’t sacrifice anything on his paycheck the way many other winning superstars have. And that’s where the burden of expectations is magnified further — and where there’s a lot less empathy for the perception around Marner in particular. If Marner is getting paid to do it all, and he’s not doing one of the things he’s paid for at that level, and his team doesn’t have cap space to make up for it, that’s a problem created by Marner.

Marner didn’t ask for the level of vitriol spewed in his direction, nor does he deserve the extremes reached after this postseason. But there’s a good reason why he is often the lightning rod for criticism among the team’s core, an entirely self-inflicted one given his last contract standoff. While some of it is beyond unacceptable, a lot of the pointed criticism of his play is fair game.

When a player demands more than his closest peer (Mikko Rantanen, signed for $9.25 million over six years in the same offseason) and his closest comparable (Patrick Kane signed for the 2019-20 equivalent of $9 million over five years) by a substantial margin, he is setting a higher standard for himself. It’s a standard fans will hold him accountable to.

To Marner’s credit, it’s a standard he reached during the regular season, and that does matter. He played like an $11 million player (or more) in each of the six years of his contract, often looking like one of the league’s best forwards. If all you care about is the regular season, Marner lived up to his big-ticket contract, scoring at a 102-point pace over his six-year deal with four straight seasons over a 100-point pace.

That he reached such a high regular-season level is also what made it so disappointing when he struggled to get there when it really mattered, especially offensively. That part of Marner’s game is what got him the big bucks, not his defensive game, and its disappearance in big games was hard for many fans to stomach.

Marner earning $1.5-2 million more than he should’ve as an RFA is money that could’ve been spent to help bolster Toronto’s offensive firepower. Because it went to Marner instead, it’s on Marner to be able to deliver to that level when it counts to make up for the team’s depth sacrifice. It’s an unfairly high bar considering what’s asked of Marner defensively at the top of the lineup, but it’s one he signed up for. It’s what he was paid for. It’s a bar other superstars have had less trouble reaching.

That Marner couldn’t creates double the disappointment: he wasn’t as good as his regular-season self and he wasn’t as good as his contract. The latter adds more fuel to the fire.

It’s a pressurized loop that was arguably of Marner’s own making, one that spun harsher with each playoff performance below expectations. Had Marner originally opted for a deal closer to his RFA value in line with his peers, I do not doubt the high expectations placed on him would be lessened significantly. There would be some disappointment, sure, but much less of it would be tied to how much of the salary cap Marner takes up — especially considering the way it was negotiated. That eased burden may have even had a positive effect on Marner’s game.

Which brings us to the main topic at hand: Marner’s next contract, where it seems as if the winger’s camp has not learned any lessons over the last six years.

Again, Marner’s closest comparable is Rantanen, who just signed for $12 million over eight years with the Stars. That’s a comparison that will likely follow Marner for his entire contract, especially given Rantanen’s knack for elevating his game when it matters — a quality Marner lacks. Regardless of the difference in dawg, that number is close to what’s arguably fair for a player as valuable as Marner: $12.5 million.

That was roughly what I had for Marner’s next deal the last time I wrote about it and it’s what I have again going into free agency. It’s in the ballpark of what AFP Analytics projects ($13.0 million over seven years) and Evolving Hockey ($12.7 million over seven years). It’s also in line with what David Pastrnak, a better winger than Marner at the time, signed for (equivalent of $12.9 million over eight years) in 2023.

There are a lot of signs pointing to $13 million being the line in the sand between a good and bad deal for Marner. And I’d argue that line should be closer to $12.5 million. But just like his first contract negotiation, it seems as if Marner’s camp is posturing for more than he’s worth after factoring for aging and cap growth.

Credit where credit is due: Marner’s camp is using all the leverage he has to get one of the NHL’s richest contracts, and all the power to him if he gets it. If Marner’s top priority is securing the bag above all else, his camp is doing a fantastic job of negotiating through the media, anchoring and conditioning the public to a huge number that will likely make that quest successful. (Or to paint what’s actually fair as a “discount” to reframe Marner’s narrative.)

It would not be a shock if there was a bidding war on July 1 that got Marner’s number up to $13.5 million or even $14 million. It should be noted, too, that $13.5 million is in line with Artemi Panarin’s percentage of cap hit six years ago.

If that is where Marner’s top priority lies, it would create another situation similar to the one he was just in; one that will invite intense scrutiny of his play relative to the size of his contract. It’ll be less vociferous in a smaller and quieter market, but it’ll still exist to some degree if Marner’s sole goal is winning the most money.

If his top priority is to win a Stanley Cup, taking less on a team-friendly deal is something Marner should consider — especially if the criticism of his play has bothered him as much as speculated. It’s his best avenue to reset expectations, relieve pressure and change his narrative. (And if it’s a hometown discount for Toronto, it’s also a way for Marner to help repair a fraught relationship with the fan base.)

Taking less to win is not a new concept. It’s something many of the league’s best players (Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov) have done in order to help get their team over the hump. It’s also the exact strategy that stood in Toronto’s way of the conference final this season with Florida’s core all making substantially less than their collective worth. Some of that is a result of no-state tax, yes, but I’d reckon a much larger part is a team-wide understanding of what it takes to win — and the cost of it. That’s a domino effect that started at the top with Aleksander Barkov. It’s culture more than taxes.

It also helps shield the stars from the burden of expectations that a high dollar figure demands. There would likely be a lot more noise (relative to market size, of course) around Sam Reinhart scoring at a 56-point pace over the last three Stanley Cup Final runs (but elevating his game defensively like Marner) if he was making closer to his true value. Having a Cup ring helps, but this year’s four goals in 17 playoff games would be a lot more harrowing if he was making $11.5 million instead of $8.6 million, a discount that helped the Panthers afford Brad Marchand, who helps make up the difference. It’s a two-pronged effect because there’s also less noise the further a team goes, something a hometown discount makes more likely.

That’s not a luxury the Leafs had with Marner’s last deal.

If Florida continues to be the team to beat in the East, the only way to get through them is to try and match them. The Panthers were the league’s top contract efficiency team last year and that will likely be the case again this year. Those discounts at the top of the lineup create depth in the middle of it. It’s been the separating factor between the teams that win and the Leafs for the entirety of Marner’s last contract. If he is serious about winning, taking less to do so should be a serious consideration for him because that sacrifice starts with players of his ilk. That thought process applies to the other contenders — Carolina, Vegas — that Marner has been linked to, not just Toronto.

That’s within reason, of course. No one expects Marner to take an $8 million deal with any team, but even a small discount would help signify what matters most to him. That’s been the biggest question surrounding him over the last six seasons as a result of his last public contract negotiation, where he earned a deal well above what was expected. The current public negotiation of his next contract has done nothing to dispel the notion.

The number Marner ends up signing for will be extremely telling. If it’s $13 million or more, it’s money that’s likely the highest priority. If it’s $12 million or less, it would show that Marner is a lot more serious about winning than his current reputation dictates.

Where Marner wants public perception of him to lie is in his hands. More money means a higher bar for him to clear. While Marner will have the opportunity to rise above it and prove he’s worth every dollar of a big ticket deal, it’s not a strength he’s proven he possesses. Not when it matters.

Data via Evolving-Hockey and AFP Analytics

(Top photo: Nathan Denette / The Canadian Press via The Associated Press)