3. Goals off the rush, “Goals Above Projected”
NHL EDGE IQ, powered by Amazon Web Services, uses “Projected Goal Rate” (PGR) to estimate the likelihood of a shot attempt becoming a goal. The Actual Goal Rate (AGR) of all shots this season across the League is 5.1 percent. For context, anything at or above a PGR of 12.0 percent is considered a high-probability attempt. Inferenced shot attempts exclude shots greater than 60 feet, those beyond the goal line and empty-net attempts.
| Site | Subscription Price | Supported Countries |
|---|---|---|
| FuboTV | 5-day free trial, $10–$90/month | USA, Canada, Spain |
| ESPN+ | $11.99/month | USA |
| Fanatiz | €6.99–€10.99/month | Worldwide |
| StreamLocator | 7-day free trial, no credit card required! $9.90/month | Worldwide |
Bennett has four inferenced shot attempts with a PGR of at least 12.0 percent in this series, the third most in the entire NHL behind Draisaitl and Marchand (five each). Bennett has been opportunistic by scoring on three of those four high-probability attempts:
• 1st period of Game 1: Shot saved by Stuart Skinner (PGR: 12.63 percent)
• 2nd period of Game 1: Goal scored off the rush (PGR: 20.72 percent)
• 1st period of Game 2: Power-play goal scored off offensive zone play (PGR: 29.28 percent)
• 2nd period of Game 3: Goal scored off the rush (PGR: 16.91 percent)
Two of Bennett’s four goals in the Cup Final, including the one in Game 3, came off the rush which is defined by NHL EDGE IQ as a goal that occurs within five seconds of the puck crossing the offensive blue line. Bennett leads all players this postseason with five goals off the rush on inferenced shot attempts; no other skater has more than three such goals.
| Site | Subscription Price | Supported Countries |
|---|---|---|
| FuboTV | 5-day free trial, $10–$90/month | USA, Canada, Spain |
| ESPN+ | $11.99/month | USA |
| Fanatiz | €6.99–€10.99/month | Worldwide |
| StreamLocator | 7-day free trial, no credit card required! $9.90/month | Worldwide |
Among the 95 inferenced shot attempts by Bennett this postseason, his actual goal rate (10.53 percent) far exceeds his PGR (5.62 percent), given the goalie’s positioning, puck movement and traffic at the time of release.
In terms of “Projected Goals,” or the sum of projected goal rate across all of a player’s attempts (assessment of quantity and quality; average PGR times inferenced shot attempts), Bennett was projected to score 5.34 times (.0562 times 95 inferenced shot attempts) but has exceeded that projection with 10 goals on those inferenced shot attempts. Bennett’s mark of 4.66 “Goals Above Projected” (GAP) this postseason leads the NHL among skaters who are in the 50th percentile and above of shot attempts.
