Yankees at Royals odds, picks and predictions

The New York Yankees (41-25) and host Kansas City Royals (34-34) meet in the Thursday finale of a three-game set at Kauffman Stadium. The first pitch is slated for 7:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 2-0

New York has outscored K.C. 16-5 over the first 2 games of this 3-game set, and the Yankees head into Thursday seeking a sweep. Including postseason play, New York has defeated Kansas City in 7 straight games since last October.

After 10-2 and 6-3 losses, the Royals have dropped 4 of their last 5 games. A scuffling Kansas City lineup produced 3 runs or less in all 4 of those losses. In its 7 straight setbacks against the Yanks, K.C. has scored less than 4 runs in every game.

Yankees at Royals projected starters

RHP Will Warren vs. RHP Seth Lugo

Warren (4-3, 5.34 ERA) is making his 14th start. He has a 1.41 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 through 57 1/3 innings.

• Last outing: Win, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 3 H, 4 BB, 6 K in 9-6 win vs. Boston Red Sox Saturday
• Has yielded 11 runs over his last 6 2/3 IP
• Has never faced the Royals

Lugo (3-5, 3.46 ERA) is making his 12th start. He owns a 1.17 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 65 innings.

• Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-2 loss vs. Chicago White Sox Saturday
• Career vs. Yankees: 5-3, 3.00 ERA (42 IP, 14 ER), 32 H, 11 BB, 49 K in 15 games (5 starts)
• Has allowed 5 HR in his last 14 1/3 IP

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Yankees at Royals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:28 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Yankees -145 (bet $145 to win $100) | Royals +120 (bet $100 to win $120)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+110) | Royals +1.5 (-135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Yankees at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 6, Royals 4

The Yankees are 9-1 across their last 10 series finales.

Since April 29, New York is 13-6 with a robust .888 OPS away from home. Kansas City is just 10-18 since May 20. Over that span, the Royals have clocked a mere .596 OPS at Kauffman Stadium.

Both starters have expected-ERA numbers out of phase with the surface lines. Warren has pitched against the grain of a .324 batting average on balls in play. In inning-lead-off situations, that has been a .357 BABIP; with runners in scoring position, it has been an ERA-bloating .579 BABIP.

As good as New York’s record is, the club’s analytics support an even better mark.

BET THE YANKEES (-145).

No interest. PASS.

The Over has hit the last 2 nights.

New York has been banging the ball around and collectively has a decent line against Lugo (aggregate .748 OPS per ESPN). Figure the Royals offense has being undervalued, and this contest has just the slightest lean on the OVER 9 (-105).

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.