Rays at Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays (36-30) face the Boston Red Sox (32-36) in the second game of a 3-game set Tuesday. First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Rays vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 2-2

The Rays triumphed 10-8 in a wild one in 11 innings Monday, and they’re now 6-1 over the last 7. They scored 10 runs on 12 hits, and none of those left the ballpark. OF Jake Mangum went 4-for-6 with 2 RBIs. He’s hitting .302 on the season.

The Red Sox called up top prospect OF Roman Anthony before the game, and he went 0-for-4 with an RBI. SS Trevor Story went 2-for-6 with an RBI in the loss. The Red Sox are 5-5 over the last 10 and are just 17-17 at home this year.

Rays at Red Sox projected starters

RHP Ryan Pepiot vs. RHP Lucas Giolito

Pepiot (3-5, 3.20 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 76 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 4-3 home victory Thursday against Texas Rangers
• Four career starts vs. BOS: 0-2, 4.95 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 28 K’s in 20 IP

Giolito (1-1, 6.42 ERA) makes his eighth start. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 33 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 1 2/3 IP, 7 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 1 K in 11-9 home victory over Los Angeles Angels Wednesday
• Last 5 starts vs. Tampa: 1-1, 3.58 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 29 K’s in 32 2/3 IP

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Rays at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:15 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Rays -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rays -1.5 (+145) | Red Sox +1.5 (-175)
• Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Rays at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Rays 6, Red Sox 3

We have an old-fashioned pick ’em here, and I like the RAYS (-110). They have the fourth-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.27 ERA, whereas Boston is 12th at 3.58. I’m also fading Giolito, who has an 11.8 H/9 rate, which is way up from his 8.0 career mark. He also has a 7.2 K/9, which is way down from his 9.5 career mark.

Speaking of fading Giolito, give me LUCAS GIOLITO UNDER 4.5 STRIKEOUTS (+120). It’ll be close, but he has struggled to get through 5 innings. He has done so 3 times in 7 starts. If he goes 5, I don’t see more than 4 K’s

It’s slated to be 65 degrees with a 6-mph wind blowing out toward the Green Monster. That’s a moot point for me because these teams scored 18 runs Monday, and no one hit a homer. The Red Sox are 6-4 O/U in their last 10, and Tampa is 4-6. The Over is 5-5 in the last 10 meetings between these teams.

This number is too high for me, though. It’s the highest in the last 10 meetings. LEAN UNDER 9.5 (-120).

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