Yankees at Royals odds, picks and predictions

The New York Yankees (39-25) and the Kansas City Royals (34-32) open a 3-game set Tuesday. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 3-0

The Yankees are coming off a 2-1 series loss vs. the Boston Red Sox in the Bronx. New York lost 11-7 in the Sunday finale, failing to cash as a -232 favorite with the Over (7.5) hitting. RF Aaron Judge (3-for-4, 4 RBIs) homered twice in the finale, but it wasn’t enough to overcome 5 Red Sox home runs. He’s tied with LA Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani for the second-most HRs in MLB (23), trailing only Seattle Mariners C Cal Raleigh (26).

The Royals dropped 2 of 3 at the Chicago White Sox, but avoided the sweep with a 7-5 win as -115 favorites Sunday with the Over (9) cashing. 2B Jonathan India broke a 2-2 tie with an RBI double in the seventh inning Sunday, and SS Bobby Witt Jr. hit a 2-run homer in the ninth to extend the lead. Kansas City is just 6-9 in its last 15 games.

Yankees at Royals projected starters

LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Noah Cameron

Fried (8-1, 1.78 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 81 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 4-0 home victory vs. Cleveland Guardians Thursday
• 2025 road stats: 4-1, 2.15 ERA (37 2/3 IP, 9 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 8.1 K/9 in 6 starts
• 2025 vs. Royals: 1 home start (April 15), win, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 4-2 victory
• Career vs. Royals: 2-0, 1.17 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 4 BB, 16 K in 2 starts

Cameron (2-1, 0.85 ERA) makes his sixth start. The rookie has a 0.79 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 through 31 2/3 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 6-5 setback in 10 innings at St. Louis Cardinals Thursday
• 2025 home stats: 1-1, 1.42 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 2 starts
• Has never faced Yankees

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Yankees at Royals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:03 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Yankees -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Royals +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (-125) | Royals +1.5 (+105)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Yankees at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Royals 2

The Yankees (-200) are 11-2 in Fried’s starts this year and should win again Tuesday. However, the preferred play is to bet New York on the run line at greater odds.

PASS on the ML.

Three of Fried’s last 4 starts have resulted in Yankees wins by 4 or more runs. New York also won 2 of the first 3 meetings by multiple runs.

Cameron has been impressive — allowing a total of just 3 earned runs in 31 2/3 innings — but should struggle his first time seeing the Yankees, who lead the AL with 5.45 runs per game.

BET YANKEES -1.5 (-125).

The Under has hit in 4 of Cameron’s 5 starts, with the rookie allowing 1 earned run or fewer in each outing. On the other side, Fried has given up 2 or fewer earned runs in 12 of his 13 starts.

The Under has also cashed in each of the last 6 meetings, dating back to the 2024 ALDS.

BET UNDER 8.5 (-110).

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