Series Preview: Seattle Mariners at Arizona Diamondbacks

The Mariners limp into their spring training home having salvaged just one game in a series against the lowly Angels after being swept by the Orioles. It’s been a painful slide for Seattle, but the Diamondbacks are fresh off a brutal three-game sweep at the hands of the Reds, despite sweeping the Braves in the previous series. This series lines up between two teams suffering both slings and arrows to the extent that would make Billy Shakes himself blush.

At a Glance

Mariners

Diamondbacks

Mariners

Diamondbacks

Game 1

Monday, June 9 | 6:40 pm

RHP Emerson Hancock

RHP Merrill Kelly

39%

61%

Game 2

Tuesday, June 10 | 6:40 pm

RHP Bryan Woo

RHP Brandon Pfaadt

49%

51%

Game 3

Wednesday, June 11 | 12:40 pm

RHP Bryce Miller

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

46%

54%

*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs

Team Overview

Overview

Diamondbacks

Mariners

Edge

Overview

Diamondbacks

Mariners

Edge

Batting (wRC+)

115 (4th in NL)

109 (3rd in AL)

D-Backs

Fielding (OAA)

-1 (7th)

-10 (12th)

D-Backs

Starting Pitching (FIP-)

112 (12th)

100 (7th)

Mariners

Bullpen (FIP-)

118 (15th)

106 (12th)

Mariners

Spare a moment to pity the D-Backs, trapped in the NL West with the powerhouses of the Dodgers and Padres, but also a surprisingly good Giants team. They also just lost the rock of their rotation in Corbin Burnes, their biggest off-season acquisition, who now requires TJ surgery. Generally I do not feel overly sorry for the residents of the Grand Canyon State, but in this specific instance, I do. The loss of Burnes only exacerbates the issues the D-Backs have in their starting rotation. Eduardo Rodriguez and Jordan Montgomery, the two big free agent signings from the 2023-24 offseason, have been either injured or hugely disappointing and Zac Gallen has taken a pretty big step back this year.

Diamondbacks Lineup

Player

Position

Bats

PA

K%

BB%

ISO

wRC+

Player

Position

Bats

PA

K%

BB%

ISO

wRC+

Corbin Carroll

RF

L

286

23.8%

8.7%

0.306

148

Ketel Marte

2B

S

165

12.7%

15.2%

0.309

181

Geraldo Perdomo

SS

S

276

11.6%

12.7%

0.153

120

Josh Naylor

1B

L

264

12.9%

7.6%

0.154

116

Eugenio Suárez

3B

R

266

25.6%

7.5%

0.284

125

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

LF

R

255

14.1%

5.9%

0.180

98

Pavin Smith

DH

L

186

29.6%

15.6%

0.172

144

Gabriel Moreno

C

R

176

16.5%

7.4%

0.136

110

Alek Thomas

LF

L

176

23.9%

3.4%

0.110

84

This is, and remains, a good lineup, driven by Seattle’s own five-tool son Corbin Carroll, who it is very hard to root against, but root against him we must for these three games. He’s backed by former Mariner Ketel Marte, Jerry Dipoto’s personal sleep paralysis demon. Former contact merchant turned power hitter Geraldo Perdomo hits out of the three-hole and is having an All-Star season, and good for him, really. Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez (miss you forever, Geno) provide some big thump–and big swing-and-miss–in the middle of the lineup, along with Pavin Smith. Truthfully, the D-Backs lineup is full of hitters top to bottom, so the Mariners will need to make hay against their pitching to win games in this series.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Game 1 Pitching Matchup

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Merrill Kelly

76

23.8%

6.3%

10.7%

46.2%

3.43

3.33

Emerson Hancock

50.1

17.5%

7.8%

17.0%

44.4%

5.19

5.02

RHP Merrill Kelly

Pitch

Frequency

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Pitch

Frequency

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Four-seam

24.5%

91.7

94

110

116

0.378

Sinker

13.5%

92.1

84

27

90

0.433

Cutter

18.7%

90.5

91

75

116

0.323

Changeup

23.8%

88.2

85

117

100

0.245

Curveball

11.5%

81.8

104

80

86

0.289

Slider

8.0%

85.8

99

95

107

0.295

Since returning from a long stint in Korea back in 2019, Merrill Kelly has carved out a very successful major league career across the last seven seasons. It hasn’t been flashy, but above average skills across the board combined with a deep repertoire has given him plenty of ways to attack batters. His best pitch is a hard changeup that features a ton of sinking action. Even though it only has three miles per hour separation from his fastball, the movement profile generates a ton of swings and misses. He’s also got a pair of solid breaking balls to round out his pitch mix.

Game 2 Pitching Matchup

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Brandon Pfaadt

65.1

17.8%

5.9%

16.2%

41.0%

5.51

4.95

Bryan Woo

76.1

23.0%

3.7%

9.8%

39.6%

3.07

3.30

RHP Brandon Pfaadt

Pitch

Frequency

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Pitch

Frequency

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Four-seam

32.4%

93.5

97

66

100

0.481

Sinker

17.8%

93.4

91

80

83

0.363

Changeup

17.3%

87.7

75

93

53

0.414

Curveball

11.0%

83.0

104

104

66

0.439

Sweeper

21.4%

84.4

115

95

66

0.335

As a former top prospect, Brandon Pfaadt’s reputation far exceeds his actual production through the first three seasons of his big league career. His career ERA sits above five, though his FIP is nearly a run lower and his xFIP even lower than that. He’s got some solid secondary offerings — two breaking balls and a changeup — but the problem is a fastball that’s just far too hittable. Among all four-seam fastballs thrown at least 100 times this year, Pfaadt’s has the tenth worst expected wOBA allowed. That’s mostly due to his control over command profile; he’ll fill the strike zone with his pitches, but they’re not particularly well placed and batters can usually count on seeing a pitch in the heart of the zone to crush.

Game 3 Pitching Matchup

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Eduardo Rodriguez

49.2

23.7%

7.8%

13.2%

31.2%

6.70

4.30

Bryce Miller

48.2

18.1%

10.6%

8.2%

35.3%

5.73

4.40

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez

Pitch

Frequency

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Pitch

Frequency

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Four-seam

45.3%

91.8

91

104

100

0.331

Sinker

10.1%

91.7

95

Cutter

13.7%

89.1

93

101

66

0.330

Changeup

21.2%

86.4

89

95

115

0.355

Slider

9.7%

84.8

101

A long list of minor injuries have sapped Eduardo Rodriguez of a lot of his effectiveness since his peak with the Red Sox half a decade ago. His fastball velocity has settled in around 91 mph over the last few years after sitting up toward 93 mph in Boston. His changeup has mostly maintained its effectiveness which has allowed him to maintain his excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio. His biggest issue this year is an outrageously high .367 BABIP and a career low groundball rate combining to drive his ERA up near seven. If you believe in his peripherals, that mark is bound to drop sometime soon.

The Big Picture:

AL West Standings

Team

W-L

W%

Games Behind

Recent Form

Team

W-L

W%

Games Behind

Recent Form

Astros

36-29

0.554

—

L-W-W-W-L

Mariners

33-31

0.516

2.5

L-L-L-L-W

Rangers

31-35

0.470

5.5

L-L-L-W-W

Angels

30-34

0.469

5.5

W-L-W-W-L

Athletics

26-41

0.388

11.0

L-W-W-L-W

AL Wild Card Standings

Team

W-L

W%

Games Behind

Recent Form

Team

W-L

W%

Games Behind

Recent Form

Blue Jays

35-30

0.538

—

W-W-W-W-W

Rays

35-30

0.538

—

W-W-W-L-W

Twins

35-30

0.538

—

W-L-L-L-W

Guardians

34-30

0.531

0.5

W-L-L-L-W

Mariners

33-31

0.516

1.5

L-L-L-L-W

Royals

34-32

0.515

1.5

L-W-L-L-W

The Mariners remain behind the Astros, who handled the Guardians over their last set and get to continue beating up on weak teams as they take on the White Sox this week. The Rangers got swept by the Rays but then won a series against the Nationals, something the Mariners couldn’t do; they’ll now take on the Twins. The A’s were the latest victim of the surging Orioles, although they at least managed to win one game; they’ll go on to play the Angels this week.