MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Padres-Dodgers, Zack Wheeler and Red Sox-Rays)

Looking to bet on the Major League Baseball action on Monday, June 9?

Several new series begin on Monday, including matchups between the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies – two of the best teams in the NL – and the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres.

As we get closer to the midway mark of the 2025 regular season, teams are battling for position in the standings, especially since only one division leader (the Detroit Tigers) has an advantage of more than 4.5 games.

Tonight, I’m betting on a pair of games between division rivals, as well as a player prop for Philadelphia Phillies ace Zack Wheeler.

Here’s a full breakdown of each of my picks – and their latest odds – for Monday, June 9. 

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

San Diego Padres Moneyline (+100) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Padres are just a game back of the Dodgers entering Monday’s matchup, and I think they’re undervalued as home underdogs with Nick Pivetta on the mound.

Not only are the Padres an impressive 20-10 at home this season, but they have the advantage in the pitching department with Dustin May toeing the rubber for the Dodgers.

This season, May ranks in just the 27th percentile in Major League Baseball in expected ERA (4.46), per Statcast, and he’s struggled over his last eight starts, posting a 5.24 ERA while leading the Dodgers to a 3-5 record.

Pivetta, on the other hand, has an expected ERA of 3.49 this season and an actual ERA of 3.16. He’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in 10 of his 12 starts, and the Padres are an impressive 8-4 when he’s on the mound this season. 

While Los Angeles has arguably the best offense in baseball in 2025, I still think the Padres are the team to bet on with Pivetta on the bump. They’re 5-1 in his six home starts, and May has been inconsistent since his last two outings in April, allowing 48 hits and 16 walks in just 44.2 innings of work. 

Boston Red Sox-Tampa Bay Rays OVER 8.5 (-113)

Monday’s matchup between the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays features a pair of young starters, but neither has been lights out in the 2025 season.

Boston’s Brayan Bello enters this matchup with a 3.91 ERA, but his advanced numbers tell a much different story. Bello ranks in the eighth percentile in expected ERA (5.71), fifth percentile in expected batting average against (.301), and in the 10th percentile or worse in whiff percentage, strikeout percentage, and chase percentage.

Not great.

Bello has allowed three or more runs in four of his nine starts this season, but I think he’s due for some regression given how poor his advanced metrics are.

On the Tampa Bay side, Shane Baz hasn’t been much better, posting a 4.96 ERA and 5.01 Fielding Independent Pitching this season. His expected ERA is in the 31st percentile in MLB (4.32), and he ranks in the 35th percentile or worse in expected batting average against, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, and whiff percentage.

The Rays righty has allowed three or more runs in seven of his 12 outings in 2025. So, I expect these teams to come close to hitting this total before the starters exit on Monday.

Zack Wheeler UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125)

Zack Wheeler is set to return to the Philadelphia Phillies rotation on Monday after missing time for the birth of his child.

So far this season, Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, posting a 2.96 ERA while allowing just 52 hits in 76.0 innings of work.

He has a tough matchup against the Chicago Cubs on Monday, but I love the UNDER for Wheeler’s hits allowed prop in this matchup.

So far this season, Wheeler has allowed more than four hits in just five of his 12 starts, and he held opponents to four or fewer hits in every outing in May.

On top of that, Wheeler ranks in the 94th percentile in expected batting average against this season at .194. He’s also in the 89th percentile in hard-hit percentage. I expect the Phillies’ ace to stay hot in this series opener.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $200 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.