Heat must learn from this mistake regarding Tyler Herro’s impending extension – Hot Hot Hoops

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro will be eligible to sign a three-year, $149.7 million extension in October. (Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images)

In today’s NBA, how you allocate your funds has never been more important. The Miami Heat are realizing that, as well as the rest of the NBA.

The Boston Celtics, less than one calendar year removed from winning the NBA Title, are looking to shed salary (Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis) to potentially get out of the luxury tax, even before Jayson Tatum (unfortunately) tore his achilles in the Celtics’ second-round series against the Knicks. The Phoenix Suns can’t trade Bradley Beal and won’t trade Devin Booker, leaving Kevin Durant (and his $54.7 million) as the odd man out; the Cleveland Cavaliers, who locked themselves into a 2-3-year window, could look to consolidate guard Darius Garland this summer.

This isn’t just an issue the Heat are dealing with. However, as they enter this new build with Bam Adebayo already on a max contract, they face an important decision regarding guard Tyler Herro, who will become eligible to sign a three-year, $149.7 million extension in October.

And if they don’t choose to extend him, they must learn an important lesson from the botched Jimmy Butler extension last summer.

Heat must consider trading Tyler Herro if they won’t extend him:

Herro, 25, had the best single season of his career in 2024-25, amid all the turmoil endured during the season. He averaged 23.9 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game on 47.2 percent shooting, including 37.5 percent from 3-point range and 87.8 percent from the free-throw line. Herro modified his shot diet, finishing sixth in made 3-pointers (251), appearing in 77 of 82 games, the first time in his career that the sixth-year pro has played in more than 67 games.

However, should Herro sign an extension, would be $46.2M, $48.9M and $53.6 million, respectively, allocating for at least 23.5 percent of the cap in each season. Thus, Herro and Adebayo would allocate for 49.4, 53.7 and 53 percent of the cap through 2029 if the 6-foot-5 guard signs the full max allotted ($150 million); assuming his extension averages $40 million per year flat, they would allocate for roughly 50 percent of the cap in 2027-28 and 49 percent in 2028-29, the final year of Adebayo’s deal.

That’s a lot to delegate to two star players, neither of whom is considered a true “No. 1” option. Adebayo’s an all-world defender who’s the quintessential embodiment of what #HEATCulture™ represents. Herro’s been flushed into trade rumors since he was a rookie, but has improved each season, earning his first All-Star appearance last February.

However, we’ve seen Adebayo become a true No. 2 option on a title contender multiple times. We haven’t seen Herro be a true No. 2 or 3, respectfully. The former is also consistently available, providing legitimate two-way value at an All-NBA level; we can’t say the same about the latter.

Should the Heat decide not to extend Herro, coming off yet another disappointing postseason as a lead guard, they should consider trying to sell “high” (depending on how you feel about where his value is after his disastrous playoffs). He’s never been healthier nor has he been more efficient; Herro’s 60.5 true shooting percentage was his highest by 3.9 percentage points, while his 56.3 effective field goal percentage was the highest by 3.2 points.

Of course, you don’t trade Herro just to trade him. You have to find the right deal; you have to find a viable suitor who wants to extend the 6-foot-5 guard for at least $35-40 million per year as a second option (at best) if you’re not willing to.

Miami also doesn’t have to extend the Kentucky alum this offseason. It has an extra year to buy relative to Butler’s extension last offseason, but can the Heat not risk capitalizing on this opportunity to sell high when Herro has missed at least 20 percent of his team’s games in three of his prior five seasons before 2024-25?

Locking Herro and Adebayo into large contracts in this second-apron era could have serious consequences for the Heat, and they stumbled into a perfect opportunity to cash in, if they choose to take that route, and replenish their scarce treasure chest of assets.

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