Reds at Guardians odds, picks and predictions

The Cincinnati Reds (33-33) face the Cleveland Guardians (34-30) in the opener of a 3-game set Monday. First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Reds vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 3-0 with a sweep May 16-18 at home

The Reds completed a 3-game sweep over the Arizona Diamondbacks with a 4-2 victory Sunday. SS Elly De La Cruz went 1-for-8 in the series, but the team scored 21 runs in the 3 games. 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand homered in each game and is 8-for-17 (.471) with 3 HRs and 8 RBIs over the last 4 games.

The Guardians avoided a 3-game sweep by the Houston Astros with a 4-2 winner Sunday. C Bo Naylor went 3-for-4 with his eighth homer to lead the charge. The Guardians are 5-5 over the last 10 games. They scored 4-plus runs in each of those wins and 3 or fewer runs in each of the losses.

Reds at Guardians projected starters

LHP Wade Miley vs. RHP Luis Ortiz

Miley (0-0, 18.00 ERA), who had Tommy John surgery in 2024, makes his first start (second appearance). He has allowed 4 ER, 6 H and 0 BB with 0 K’s in 2 IP.

• He was 1-2 with a 8.84 ERA, 1.86 WHIP and 15 K’s in 19 1/3 IP at Class A Dayton and Triple-A Louisville this season
• He’s 3-4 with a 3.51 ERA in 10 career GS against Cleveland. He’s 2-2 with a 2.59 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 17 K’s in 24 1/3 IP at Progressive Field

Ortiz (3-6, 4.02 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 65 innings.

• Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K Wednesday in a 4-0 victory at the New York Yankees
• In 4 career starts vs. Reds: 1-1, 1.19 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 24 K’s in 22 2/3 IP

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Reds at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:51 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Reds +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Guardians -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-160) | Guardians -1.5 (+135)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Reds at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 5, Reds 4

I like the GUARDIANS (-160) in this spot, despite them being 4-11 against left-handed starters. Miley struggled to get minor league hitters out, and he’s clearly not the same pitcher that 3B Jose Ramirez is 2-for-15 (.133) against at the age of 38. The magic number is 4 for Cleveland, and they’ll hit it Monday.

I’m not interested in either option.

PASS.

The wind is blowing out at the park formerly known as “The Jake.” So I’m a little surprised to see the number only at 8.5. Both teams are 3-7 O/U in their last 10, but I’ll take the OVER 8.5 (-120) based on the weather and less-than-tantalizing pitching matchup.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @rdodsonsports on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.