What Should Be Done Now

Valeriy Chaly is an experienced foreign policy specialist and diplomat who was among the participants of the Odesa Security Forum Black Sea Security Forum 2025. Together with American participants, he discussed the prospects for pressure on Russia and security issues – key for Ukraine now.

Kyiv Post’s correspondent spoke to him during one of the breaks about what the next steps of the Trump administration should be.

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At the forum, both White House supporters and critics of the Trump administration agreed that negotiations have exhausted themselves.

Russia’s barbaric assaults on Ukraine, and the continuation of offensive operations, directly demonstrates that Moscow is not interested in peace. What further steps can the United States take, and what is needed to stop the aggressor as soon as possible?

Today, during the forum, you have used two words speaking to American colleagues: “pessimist” and “realist.” Why? They said they have big expectations from the Senate and the Trump administration. You said you still stay realistic and pessimistic.

Typically, when we reconsider scenarios, we have three options: optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic. In my view, I expect no significant changes in negotiations during the summertime.

The Russians generally and Putin personally will continue to attack us. There is no doubt they will seize this opportunity. Therefore, the most optimistic outcome today is merely a ceasefire; however, even in this case, it will not lead to a sustainable peace.

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What is realistic to you?

More realistically, not for the first time, but the third – possibly since Russia’s full-scale invasion—they destroyed all available opportunities for negotiations. So, after the fall of these attempts.  After that, we will endure several months of very aggressive warfare, but then we will have another window of opportunity next fall, with Ukraine in a better position due to increased weapon support from the EU and the US in a case of additional sanctions, more weapons from EU and US, and I hope oil market prices will decline. If these three factors will come, we will be in a better position to negotiate, and Russia will face pressure to engage in negotiations. Its my expectation.

You have been an ambassador to the US for several years.  Why are they behaving in such a way? They are talking about 500% sanctions, and nothing happens. Then, and now again! And I think, we will still have no results for it… Why?

I disagree with most Ukrainian commentators who argue that Trump has a pro-Russian position. No. In fact, this position is closer to Russian narratives than to Ukrainian ones, and Ukraine has been under pressure, but it doesn’t mean that Trump has a pro-Russian stance.

This is his perspective. It doesn’t imply that he will not change his approach, not his personal, but the approach of the White House.

Here on the forum, most Americans are friends of Ukraine. Everyone discusses an optimistic scenario and wants to assert their authority, they are not only commentators but also active in US politics.

So what will happen next?

I believe Trump could feel frustrated with Russia and Putin, and might step back as a mediator, opening up opportunities for the US. This is because they use possible sanctions as a tool to pressure Putin before introduction. In my opinion, this is the wrong way. It shows a weak position.

My proposal is to move forward, implement sanctions, and compel Putin to negotiate. I do not believe they will change strategies in this war.

But I do believe that Mr. Trump will allow some actions that are currently on hold because Americans are in negotiations. Like “How can we proceed if we are in negotiations?” My take if they make step back it will be good for Ukraine.

But the Russians are trying to hold him in this position at the meetings in Istanbul…

So-called meetings in Istanbul. All these meetings are imitations of negotiations. Not true. Negotiations that do not lead to conclusion: They are trying to keep Trump and us in continuing offensive operations.

It’s impossible, it must be stopped. And I think it will be stopped next week, we are going to see some action in Congress, and also about kidnaping kids, etc.

What sanctions exactly? The US and Russia are not close trade partners, actually. Is it possible?

Good question, and you provided an answer. It is not about trade; rather, it concerns the energy sector, specifically the purchase of Russian oil. This issue particularly affects third-world countries.

The US could impose sanctions on Russian banks that operate in the oil market in dollars. If they take this action, Russia will have significantly less money for the war next year.

This outcome is likely if Saudi Arabia continues to sell the same amount of oil as it does today for the next 4-5 months, Russia will have twice less money for war next year. Such a change could bring Russia to the negotiation table.

I am unsure what exact package will be implemented, by the way, because we have the Senate draft and two drafts from the House, which will result in a combination of the bills. We must await the final reconciliation bill.

You can find the video of this story here.