Phillies at Pirates odds, picks and predictions

The Philadelphia Phillies (37-27) visit the Pittsburgh Pirates (25-40) in the final game of their 3-games series on Sunday. First pitch from PNC Park is at 1:35 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Phillies vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 3-2

The Phillies have been scuffling, having lost 4 games in a row, including the first 2 games of this series, and 8 of their last 9 contests. After a 5-4 loss in the opener on Friday, they lost 2-1 on Saturday, the third time in 4 games they scored only 1 run. They were held to 4 hits and their only run was DH Kyle Schwarber’s 20th home run. SP Ranger Suarez suffered his first loss of the season despite a strong outing, allowing only 2 runs on 5 hits in 7 innings.

The Pirates have won 3 of their last 4 games. SP Andrew Heaney pitched 6 strong innings, allowing just the Schwarber homer and 3 other hits, while the bullpen came in and pitched 3 perfect innings to close things out with RP David Bednar notching his eighth save. C Henry Davis had 2 hits and his his fourth home run of the season.

Phillies at Pirates projected starters

LHP Cristopher Sanchez vs. RHP Paul Skenes

Sanchez (5-1, 3.15 ERA) is making his 13t start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 65 2/3 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 8-3 road win over the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday
• Phillies are 10-2 in his starts and have won his last 4 outings
• Career vs. Pirates: 0-2, 1.45 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 3 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance
• 2025 road stats: 3-1, 2.90 ERA (31 IP, 10 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 6 starts

Skenes (4-6, 2.05 ERA) is making his 14th start. He has a 0.88 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in a league-leading 83 1/3 innings.

• Last start: Loss, 8 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 3-0 home loss to the Houston Astros on Tuesday
• Has not allowed more than 1 ER in his last 5 starts (1.04 ERA in 34 2/3 IP)
• Career vs. Phillies: 0-1, 1.13 ERA (8 IP, 1 ER), 0.50 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 1 start (on May 18)
• 2025 home stats: 1-4, 3.08 ERA (38 IP, 13 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 6 starts

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Phillies at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:03 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Pirates -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Phillies -1.5 (+170) | Pirates +1.5 (-210)
• Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Phillies at Pirates picks and predictions

Prediction

Pirates 3, Phillies 2

The Pirates have not swept an opponent this season, but have a perfect opportunity with Skenes on the mound, although the Phillies are 10-2 when Sanchez starts and 4-0 in his last 4 outings. Skenes has allowed only a combined 4 runs in his last 5 starts.

The Phillies have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 9 games and only 1 in 3 of their last 4.

Bet the Pirates to complete their first sweep of the year. BET PIRATES (-115).

The Pirates are 13-8 ATS as home favorites this season and 6 of their last 7 covers have been outright wins. So -210 odds to cover does not make for a good value, especially when you do get good value for the ML.

PASS.

Seven of Skenes’ starts this season have had 7 or fewer total runs and 5 of the Pirates’ last 8 games have not surpassed 7 total runs.

This has the making of a great pitching duel.

BET UNDER 7 (-120).

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