Preview: Finland vs Netherlands – prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday’s World Cup qualifier between Finland and Netherlands, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Netherlands kick-start their 2026 World Cup qualification campaign with a trip to the Helsinki Olympic Stadium where they will face Finland on Saturday night.

The two nations, ranked 63 places apart in the FIFA World Rankings, are joined in Group G by Poland, Lithuania and Malta.

Match preview

Netherlands were hoping to be involved in UEFA Nations League action this month, but their efforts in a thrilling 10-goal two-legged quarter-final with Spain were in vain, as they suffered a 5-4 penalty shootout defeat in March.

In fact, victories have been hard to come by for head coach Ronald Koeman, who has steered the Oranje to only two wins in their last nine internationals across all competitions (D4 L3) – both of those were emphatic home successes against Bosnia-Herzegovina (5-2) and Hungary (4-0) in the Nations League.

As a result of participating in the Nations League three months ago, Netherlands are now playing catch-up in World Cup qualifying as each of the other four teams in Group G have played two games each. The Oranje currently sit six points behind leaders Poland who have won their opening two matches.

Ranked sixth in the world by FIFA, Netherlands are bidding to qualify for their 12th World Cup and will be aiming to come out on top in at least six of their eight group fixtures, as they have failed to qualify for the World Cup on each occasion (eight in total) when they have won no more than 60% of their matches.

A trip to Finland arguably represents one of the trickiest Group G fixtures, on paper, for the Dutch, but they will back themselves to prevail on Saturday as they have won each of their last four meetings with the Eagle-owls across Euros and World Cup qualifying by an aggregate score of 11-2.

Finland failed to win each of their last eight international matches in 2024 (D1 L7) and suffered relegation from League B Group 2 in the Nations League after losing all six fixtures in a group containing England, Republic of Ireland and Greece.

Under the tutelage of new head coach Jacob Friis, who replaced Markku Kanerva in January, Finland have made an unbeaten start to 2025 after picking up four points across their first two World Cup qualifiers against Malta and Lithuania.

Oliver Antman scored the only goal in a slender 1-0 win at 10-man Malta on matchday one, before Finland let a two-goal lead slip to draw 2-2 with Lithuania in their most recent fixture at the end of March, leaving them second in Group G and at least three points clear of the three nations below them.

Ranked 69th in the world by FIFA, Finland are bidding to qualify for their first-ever World Cup at the 19th time of asking; the Eagle-owls narrowly missed out on qualifying for the 2022 tournament in Qatar after finishing third in the group and just one point behind second-placed Ukraine who advanced to the playoffs.

Friis will be keen to improve Finland’s home form, as they have lost each of their last three home internationals, conceding at least twice on each occasion, and have won just one of their last five World Cup qualifiers on their own turf (D2 L2).

Finland World Cup Qualifying – Europe form:

Finland form (all competitions):

Netherlands form (all competitions):

Team News

Thirty-eight-year-old midfielder Roman Eremenko had been recalled to the Finland squad, nine years after earning the latest of his 73 caps following an impressive run of form at club level with Gnistan, but he has since been forced to withdraw due to injury.

Experienced quartet Lukas Hradecky, Teemu Pukki, Joel Pohjanpalo and Robin Lod have all been included, with the former expected to start in goal and become the sixth Finnish player in history to earn 100 caps.

Djurgarden’s Matias Siltanen, 18, and Petrolul Ploiesti’s Tommi Jyry, 25, have earned their first senior international call-ups and are in contention to make their debuts this weekend, although a start for either midfielder is unlikely.

As for the Netherlands, Bart Verbruggen, Jurrien Timber, Jerdy Schouten, Brian Brobbey, Matthijs de Ligt, Joshua Zirkzee, Kenneth Taylor and Joey Veerman have all been left out of the 23-man squad, the former four are absent due to injury or fitness issues.

However, Nathan Ake has returned after recovering from foot surgery and will likely battle with Ajax teenager Jorrel Hato for a start at left-back, while Denzel Dumfries, Lutsharel Geertruida and new Liverpool signing Jeremie Frimpong and all contenders to begin at right-back.

Frenkie de Jong and Manchester City-bound Tijjani Reijnders could both link arms in centre-midfield, while Koeman has confirmed that either Memphis Depay or Wout Weghorst will start up front. Whoever is selected could be supported in attack by Xavi Simons, Cody Gakpo and Justin Kluivert.

Finland possible starting lineup:

Hradecky; Alho, Tenho, Ivanov, Uronen; Kamara, Kairinen, Lod; Antman, Pohjanpalo, Kallman

Netherlands possible starting lineup:

Flekken; Dumfries, Van Hecke, Van Dijk, Ake; De Jong, Reijnders; Kluivert, Simons, Gakpo; Weghorst

We say: Finland 0-2 Netherlands

Nothing can be entirely ruled out in football, but it is difficult to envisage Finland pulling off an upset and winning their first game against the Netherlands since 1950 (a 4-1 friendly win). Should the Oranje name a strong lineup, we expect them to announce themselves in Group G with a victory.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Netherlands win with a probability of 57.71%. A draw has a probability of 22.2% and a win for Finland has a probability of 20.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Netherlands win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (9.93%) and 0-2 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Finland win it is 1-0 (5.5%).

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