Preview: Bahamas vs Costa Rica – prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday’s World Cup Qualifying – North Central America clash between Bahamas and Costa Rica, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Bahamas and Costa Rica are set to matchup at BFA Wildey Turf on Sunday for a CONCACAF World Cup qualifying clash in Group B.

The hosts are already out of the tournament having failed to record a point from their three games, while the visitors are fighting to ensure a top two finish and progression to the third round.

Match preview

Bahamas came into the CONCACAF qualifiers aiming to secure their first-ever participation at a World Cup tournament, but their dream has already come to an end.

They advanced directly to the second round of the qualifiers as the 28th-highest ranked CONCACAF side in the FIFA rankings, sitting at 202nd overall, narrowly six spots above Turks and Caicos Islands, who had to compete in a playoff first round.

Drawn in Group B alongside Saint Kitts and Nevis, Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago and Costa Rica, Bahamas have lost all of their three fixtures thus far, leaving them at the bottom of the table and already unable to qualify for the 2026 competition.

Nesley Jean’s side suffered a 7-1 defeat to Trinidad and Tobago in their opening match, followed by a 1-0 loss to Saint Kitts and Nevis on matchday two and a 6-0 defeat to Grenada on matchday three, leaving them behind second-placed Trinidad and Tobago by four points with only one game remaining.

While they are now unable to qualify for the World Cup, Bahamas will be aiming to avoid a dismal qualifying campaign of four defeats from four, but they are set to face their toughest test yet on Sunday.

Costa Rica have expectedly emerged as the frontrunners to secure first spot in Group B, sitting top of the table with two wins from their two matches – defeating Saint Kitts and Nevis 4-0 and Grenada 3-0.

Gustavo Alfaro, manager at the time of those victories, has since left the managerial role, with Claudio Vivas briefly in charge before current manager Miguel Herrera took the reins at the beginning of this year.

Herrera has won two and lost two of his first four matches in charge of the country, though the new boss is undefeated in competitive action, with both defeats coming in international friendly games against USA and Catalunya.

Returning back to CONCACAF World Cup qualifying for the first time since June 2024, Costa Rica will now focus on securing a victory against Bahamas, with three points from their last two fixtures expected to be enough to confirm their top-two status.

Bahamas form (all competitions):

Costa Rica form (all competitions):

Team News

The hosts will be without Andre Roberts for Sunday’s outing after the midfielder was forced off just 17 minutes after entering the pitch in their recent 6-0 loss to Grenada.

In his absence, Kevin Thomas, Lance Carroll and William Bayles could continue in a midfield three, while there could be several changes elsewhere as a result of the humiliating defeat.

As for Costa Rica, Jeyland Mitchell could be a doubt to appear on Sunday after the defender sustained an injury in their friendly clash with Catalunya just over a week ago.

Yeison Molina could start in Mitchell’s absence, partnering Francisco Calvo in central defence, while Joseph Mora and Fernan Faerron could retain their starting full-back positions.

Bahamas possible starting lineup:

Wheaton; Gardiner, Kelly, Minns, Miller; Bayles, Carroll, Thomas; Lopez, Cross, Milfrise

Costa Rica possible starting lineup:

Navas; Faerron, Calvo, Molina, J Mora; Nunez, Brenes, Alcocer; C Mora, Madrigal, Zamora

We say: Bahamas 0-5 Costa Rica

Bahamas are yet to take a point in Group B and have conceded 14 goals in three games, while Costa Rica have not dropped any points and have scored seven in two games, factors that point to a major victory for the visitors.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.

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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Costa Rica win with a probability of 61.22%. A draw has a probability of 19.5% and a win for Bahamas has a probability of 19.26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Costa Rica win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (8.01%) and 1-3 (7.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (8.52%), while for a Bahamas win it is 2-1 (5.12%).

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