Series Preview: Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins

After such a strong start to the season in April, the Mariners are now on the verge of finishing with a record under .500 in May. They’ve gone 4-6 since the Vedder Cup sweep and vibes have taken a turn for the worse. You can point to pretty much every aspect of the roster and see regression from the first month of the season: the offense has fallen from a 125 wRC+ in April to just 100 in May and the starters have gone from an 88 FIP- to 104 this month. The team’s true talent probably lies somewhere in between the extremes over these two months, but the highs of April make May’s valley seem particularly deep.

At a Glance

Twins

Mariners

Twins

Mariners

Game 1

Friday, May 30 | 7:10 pm

RHP Zebby Matthews

RHP Bryan Woo

43%

57%

Game 2

Saturday, May 31 | 4:15 pm

RHP Bailey Ober

RHP Bryce Miller

46%

54%

Game 3

Sunday, June 1 | 1:10 pm

RHP Chris Paddack

RHP Luis Castillo

41%

59%

*Game odds courtesy of FanGraphs

Team Overview

Overview

Twins

Mariners

Edge

Overview

Twins

Mariners

Edge

Batting (wRC+)

95 (11th in AL)

113 (2nd in AL)

Mariners

Fielding (OAA)

0 (9th)

-9 (13th)

Twins

Starting Pitching (FIP-)

87 (4th)

96 (7th)

Twins

Bullpen (FIP-)

76 (1st)

107 (11th)

Twins

The ups and downs of the Twins season are essentially the opposite of the Mariners. Minnesota got off to an extremely poor start to the year, going 13-18 through the end of April. As soon as the calendar flipped to May, they rattled off a 13-game win streak and launched themselves up the standings. They’ve leveled off a bit over the last couple of weeks, going 4-5 since that hot streak was snapped. Their offense has had its struggles, but the pitching staff has been among the best in the American League and it’s driven all of their success this month; only the Yankees have allowed fewer runs in May and Minnesota has a matching 17-7 record with New York this month.

Twins Lineup

Player

Position

Bats

PA

K%

BB%

ISO

wRC+

Player

Position

Bats

PA

K%

BB%

ISO

wRC+

Ryan Jeffers

C

R

172

19.8%

11.0%

0.133

114

Byron Buxton

CF

R

173

32.4%

6.4%

0.261

131

Trevor Larnach

DH

L

221

21.7%

8.6%

0.152

102

Carlos Correa

SS

R

178

18.0%

5.1%

0.125

87

Ty France

1B

R

213

14.6%

4.7%

0.104

97

Brooks Lee

2B

S

150

16.0%

6.0%

0.115

75

Kody Clemens

RF

L

72

27.8%

9.7%

0.355

181

Royce Lewis

3B

R

70

14.3%

7.1%

0.077

17

Willi Castro

LF

S

132

25.0%

6.8%

0.118

86

About two weeks ago, Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton had a nasty collision on a shallow popup and both were placed on the 7-day concussion IL. Correa returned a few days ago and Buxton is on track to be activated for this series. As has been the case for the last few years, the Twins offense essentially runs through those two superstars, and their health determines how well the lineup performs. The third offensive driver, Royce Lewis, suffered a spring hamstring injury and has been mired in a deep slump since being activated from the IL in early May. This series also marks the return of Ty France to Seattle. He’s shown some improvements after his down season last year, though his overall line still isn’t back to where it was when he was a fixture in the heart of the M’s lineup.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

Photo by David Berding/Getty Images

Game 1 Pitching Matchup

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Zebby Matthews (AAA)

32 2/3

28.1%

6.7%

3.4%

46.5%

1.93

2.47

Bryan Woo

63 2/3

24.1%

3.2%

6.6%

39.3%

2.40

2.68

Zebby Matthews is one of a handful of young pitching prospects on the cusp of making an impact in the big leagues. He had a rough introduction to the majors last year, making nine starts with a very not nice 6.69 ERA and a 5.72 FIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio was actually very good, but a ton of home runs sank his ability to prevent runs. Some sharp control gives him a solid foundation, though it’s used more to consistently fill the zone rather than the pinpoint accuracy that George Kirby is known for. He’s got a fantastic slider but lacks a solid third pitch to round out his repertoire.

Game 2 Pitching Matchup

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Bailey Ober

58

18.4%

5.2%

6.7%

28.9%

3.41

3.60

Bryce Miller

39 2/3

20.1%

12.1%

6.7%

34.5%

5.22

3.95

RHP Bailey Ober

Pitch

Frequency

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Pitch

Frequency

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Four-seam

37.7%

90.6

94

79

108

0.341

Sinker

3.1%

90.9

Changeup

28.6%

83.4

107

100

116

0.193

Curveball

5.2%

75.6

80

Slider

16.6%

83.7

91

78

103

0.405

Sweeper

8.8%

79.1

91

Bailey Ober uses every inch of his 6-foot-9 frame to maximize his lackluster raw stuff. His elite extension down the mound helps his fastball play up, his release point is much higher than normal, and the movement profile of his pitches is not what you’d expect from a pitcher with his stature. He has one of the most extreme fly ball profiles in the game but manages to keep the ball in the yard thanks to a huge popup rate and plenty of lazy fly balls. His strikeout rate has taken a pretty steep drop this year, though all his underlying pitch metrics look in line with his career norms.

Game 3 Pitching Matchup

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Pitcher

IP

K%

BB%

HR/FB%

GB%

ERA

FIP

Chris Paddack

57 1/3

16.8%

8.0%

8.6%

39.3%

3.92

4.31

Luis Castillo

62 1/3

18.9%

7.9%

5.2%

41.5%

3.32

3.36

RHP Chris Paddack

Pitch

Frequency

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Pitch

Frequency

Velocity

Stuff+

Whiff+

BIP+

xwOBA

Four-seam

50.0%

93.6

98

80

112

0.318

Changeup

24.6%

84.0

100

86

142

0.322

Curveball

11.9%

78.0

88

40

156

0.211

Slider

12.3%

86.1

85

79

119

0.428

Chris Paddack had two terrible starts to his season, allowing 13 runs in 7.1 innings. He’s allowed no more than three runs in any of his nine starts since then and has looked like a perfectly solid member of the Twins rotation. His strikeout rate has fallen pretty significantly from where it was when he was a highly regarded prospect with the Padres. Now, he mostly relies on some excellent contact suppression skills with just enough swing-and-miss in his profile to make the whole package work. His changeup is still his best pitch, but he’s also integrated two breaking balls into his pitch mix, giving him two additional weapons he never had while he was in San Diego.

The Big Picture:

AL West Standings

Team

W-L

W%

Games Behind

Recent Form

Team

W-L

W%

Games Behind

Recent Form

Mariners

30-25

0.545

—

L-L-W-L-L

Astros

30-26

0.536

0.5

W-W-W-W-L

Rangers

27-30

0.474

4.0

L-W-L-W-L

Angels

25-30

0.455

5.0

L-L-L-L-L

Athletics

23-34

0.404

8.0

L-W-L-L-L

The Mariners should thank the Rays for keeping the Astros from slipping into first place yesterday. Houston swept a tiny two-game series against the A’s earlier this week and will wrap up its four-game set against Tampa this weekend. The Rangers continue to flounder, losing their third straight series earlier this week; they’ll host the surging Cardinals over the weekend. The Angels managed to reach .500 last weekend but have lost five straight since then, getting swept by the Yankees at home this week. Los Angeles travels to Cleveland this weekend looking to get back in the win column.